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Terrorist group location decision: an empirical investigation

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  • Khusrav Gaibulloev

Abstract

This article explores the determinants of terrorist groups’ location choice. A conditional logit estimator is applied to data consisting of 525 terrorist groups and 113 potential base countries of operation. The analysis shows that the number of existing groups in a country increases the probability of a terrorist group choosing the country as a base of operations. More important, terrorist groups are more likely to locate in a country where existing groups share similar ideology with the entrant, particularly for left-wing terrorist groups. A country’s political instability and/or state failure raise the chances that a terrorist group will locate there. Terrorist groups are more likely to base their operations closer to the venues of their planned terrorist attacks. Terrorist groups locate their base country of operation nearer to their planned venue countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Khusrav Gaibulloev, 2015. "Terrorist group location decision: an empirical investigation," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 67(1), pages 21-41.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:oxecpp:v:67:y:2015:i:1:p:21-41.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/oep/gpu035
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    Cited by:

    1. José García-Montalvo & Marta Reynal-Querol, 2018. "Earthquakes and Terrorism: The Long Lasting Effect of Seismic Shocks," Working Papers 1020, Barcelona School of Economics.
    2. Adelaja, Adesoji O., 2016. "Agriculture, Inclusive Growth And National Stability:," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 242359, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    3. José Garcia Montalvo & Marta Reynal-Querol, 2018. "Earthquakes and terrorism: the long lasting effect of seismic shocks," Economics Working Papers 1599, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    4. Gaibulloev, Khusrav & Hou, Dongfang & Sandler, Todd, 2020. "How do the factors determining terrorist groups’ longevity differ from those affecting their success?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    5. Khusrav Gaibulloev & Todd Sandler, 2019. "Terrorism and affinity of nations," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 178(3), pages 329-347, March.
    6. Gassebner, Martin & Schaudt, Paul & Wong, Melvin H.L., 2023. "Armed groups: Competition and political violence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    7. Josiah Marineau & Henry Pascoe & Alex Braithwaite & Michael Findley & Joseph Young, 2020. "The local geography of transnational terrorism," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 37(3), pages 350-381, May.

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