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The local geography of transnational terrorism

Author

Listed:
  • Josiah Marineau

    (Campbellsville University, USA)

  • Henry Pascoe

    (IE University, Spain)

  • Alex Braithwaite

    (University of Arizona, USA)

  • Michael Findley

    (University of Texas at Austin, USA)

  • Joseph Young

    (American University, USA)

Abstract

Why are some locations more attractive targets for transnational terrorism than others? Remarkably little is known about the local-level conditions and attributes that determine precisely where transnational terror attacks occur within targeted countries. To date, quantitative terrorism research identifies country- or region-level correlates of terrorism, neglecting possible local factors. In this study, we posit five local-level factors that increase the likelihood of a terror attack: security of a target, accessibility, symbolism, material harm, and exclusion. Using a variety of estimation strategies, including multilevel, negative binomial, and propensity score matching models, we regress new sub-national geographically coded transnational terrorism data on various sub-national measures that might theoretically increase the likelihood of a terror attack. The results demonstrate that although country- and region-level factors matter, numerous local-level conditions, including where civil violence occurs, sub-national economic activity, and proximity to capitals and urban areas, are equally, if not more, important. The results help to substantiate the analytical benefits of adopting the sub-national level of analysis in the study of transnational terrorism.

Suggested Citation

  • Josiah Marineau & Henry Pascoe & Alex Braithwaite & Michael Findley & Joseph Young, 2020. "The local geography of transnational terrorism," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 37(3), pages 350-381, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:compsc:v:37:y:2020:i:3:p:350-381
    DOI: 10.1177/0738894218789356
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Martin Gassebner & Paul Schaudt & Melvin H. L. Wong, 2020. "Armed Groups in Conflict: Competition and Political Violence in Pakistan," CESifo Working Paper Series 8372, CESifo.

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