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Why concessions should not be made to terrorist kidnappers

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  • Brandt, Patrick T.
  • George, Justin
  • Sandler, Todd

Abstract

This paper examines the dynamic implications of making concessions to terrorist kidnappers. We apply a Bayesian Poisson changepoint model to kidnapping incidents associated with three cohorts of countries that differ in their frequency of granting concessions. Depending on the cohort of countries during 2001–2013, terrorist negotiation successes encouraged 64% to 87% more kidnappings. Our findings also hold for 1978–2013, during which these negotiation successes encouraged 26% to 57% more kidnappings. Deterrent aspects of terrorist casualties are also quantified; the dominance of religious fundamentalist terrorists meant that such casualties generally did not curb kidnappings.

Suggested Citation

  • Brandt, Patrick T. & George, Justin & Sandler, Todd, 2016. "Why concessions should not be made to terrorist kidnappers," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 41-52.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:poleco:v:44:y:2016:i:c:p:41-52
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2016.05.004
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Atkinson, Scott E & Sandler, Todd & Tschirhart, John, 1987. "Terrorism in a Bargaining Framework," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 30(1), pages 1-21, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Anna Cartwright & Edward Cartwright, 2019. "Ransomware and Reputation," Games, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 10(2), pages 1-14, June.
    2. Wukki Kim & Justin George & Todd Sandler, 2021. "Introducing Transnational Terrorist Hostage Event (TTHE) Data Set, 1978 to 2018," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 65(2-3), pages 619-641, February.
    3. Poutvaara, Panu & Ropponen, Olli, 2018. "Shocking news and cognitive performance," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 93-106.
    4. Sushil Gupta & Martin K. Starr & Reza Zanjirani Farahani & Mahsa Mahboob Ghodsi, 2020. "Prevention of Terrorism–An Assessment of Prior POM Work and Future Potentials," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 29(7), pages 1789-1815, July.
    5. Gaibulloev, Khusrav & Hou, Dongfang & Sandler, Todd, 2020. "How do the factors determining terrorist groups’ longevity differ from those affecting their success?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).

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