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Why concessions should not be made to terrorist kidnappers

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  • Brandt, Patrick T.
  • George, Justin
  • Sandler, Todd

Abstract

This paper examines the dynamic implications of making concessions to terrorist kidnappers. We apply a Bayesian Poisson changepoint model to kidnapping incidents associated with three cohorts of countries that differ in their frequency of granting concessions. Depending on the cohort of countries during 2001–2013, terrorist negotiation successes encouraged 64% to 87% more kidnappings. Our findings also hold for 1978–2013, during which these negotiation successes encouraged 26% to 57% more kidnappings. Deterrent aspects of terrorist casualties are also quantified; the dominance of religious fundamentalist terrorists meant that such casualties generally did not curb kidnappings.

Suggested Citation

  • Brandt, Patrick T. & George, Justin & Sandler, Todd, 2016. "Why concessions should not be made to terrorist kidnappers," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 41-52.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:poleco:v:44:y:2016:i:c:p:41-52
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2016.05.004
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Meierrieks, Daniel & Renner, Laura, 2021. "Islamist terrorism and the role of women," Discussion Paper Series 2021-02, University of Freiburg, Wilfried Guth Endowed Chair for Constitutional Political Economy and Competition Policy.
    2. Anna Cartwright & Edward Cartwright, 2019. "Ransomware and Reputation," Games, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-14, June.
    3. Kerim Peren Arin & Eberhard Feess & Torben Kuhlenkasper & Otto F. M. Reich, 2019. "Negotiating with Terrorists: The Costs of Compliance," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 86(1), pages 305-317, July.
    4. Wukki Kim & Justin George & Todd Sandler, 2021. "Introducing Transnational Terrorist Hostage Event (TTHE) Data Set, 1978 to 2018," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 65(2-3), pages 619-641, February.
    5. Poutvaara, Panu & Ropponen, Olli, 2018. "Shocking news and cognitive performance," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 93-106.
    6. Dongfang Hou & Khusrav Gaibulloev & Todd Sandler, 2020. "Introducing Extended Data on Terrorist Groups (EDTG), 1970 to 2016," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 64(1), pages 199-225, January.
    7. Meierrieks, Daniel & Renner, Laura, 2023. "Islamist terrorism and the status of women," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    8. Lu Liu & Manuel Eisner, 2024. "Beyond Ransom and Political Concessions? Explaining Changes in Insurgents’ Kidnapping Involvement Versus Event-frequency," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 68(1), pages 30-52, January.
    9. Terrence August & Duy Dao & Marius Florin Niculescu, 2022. "Economics of Ransomware: Risk Interdependence and Large-Scale Attacks," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(12), pages 8979-9002, December.
    10. Khusrav Gaibulloev & Todd Sandler, 2023. "Common myths of terrorism," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 271-301, April.
    11. Sushil Gupta & Martin K. Starr & Reza Zanjirani Farahani & Mahsa Mahboob Ghodsi, 2020. "Prevention of Terrorism–An Assessment of Prior POM Work and Future Potentials," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 29(7), pages 1789-1815, July.
    12. Gaibulloev, Khusrav & Hou, Dongfang & Sandler, Todd, 2020. "How do the factors determining terrorist groups’ longevity differ from those affecting their success?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    13. Wukki Kim & Todd Sandler, 2021. "Foreign aid and terrorist groups: incidents, ideology, and survival," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 189(1), pages 139-160, October.
    14. Kim, Wukki & Sandler, Todd, 2021. "Duration and competing-risks determinants of terrorist hostage-taking incidents," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).

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