IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/phsmap/v462y2016icp21-30.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Assessment of the relationship of government spending on social assistance programs with Brazilian macroeconomic variables

Author

Listed:
  • de Senna, Viviane
  • Souza, Adriano Mendonça

Abstract

Since the 1988 Federal Constitution social assistance has become a duty of the State and a right to everyone, guaranteeing the population a dignified life. To ensure these rights federal government has created programs that can supply the main needs of people in extreme poverty. Among the programs that provide social assistance to the population, the best known are the ”Bolsa Família” Program — PBF and the Continuous Cash Benefit - Continuous Cash Benefit — BPC. This research’s main purpose is to analyze the relationship between the main macroeconomic variables and the Federal government spending on social welfare policy in the period from January 2004 to August 2014. The used methodologies are the Vector auto regression model — VAR and Error Correction Vector — VEC. The conclusion, was that there is a meaningful relationship between macroeconomic variables and social assistance programs. This indicates that if the government takes a more abrupt resolution in changing the existing programs it will result in fluctuations in the main macroeconomic variables interfering with the stability of Brazilian domestic economy up to twelve months.

Suggested Citation

  • de Senna, Viviane & Souza, Adriano Mendonça, 2016. "Assessment of the relationship of government spending on social assistance programs with Brazilian macroeconomic variables," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 462(C), pages 21-30.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:462:y:2016:i:c:p:21-30
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2016.05.022
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378437116302072
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only. Journal offers the option of making the article available online on Science direct for a fee of $3,000

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.physa.2016.05.022?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    2. Bentes, Sónia R., 2015. "On the integration of financial markets: How strong is the evidence from five international stock markets?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 429(C), pages 205-214.
    3. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    4. Granger, Clive W J, 1986. "Developments in the Study of Cointegrated Economic Variables," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 213-228, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Viviane Senna & Adriano Mendonça Souza, 2023. "Impacts of short and long-term between cryptocurrencies and stock exchange indexes," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 57(1), pages 97-119, February.
    2. Cristiano Ziegler & Renan Mitsuo Ueda & Tiago Sinigaglia & Felipe Kreimeier & Adriano Mendonça Souza, 2022. "Correlation of Climatic Factors with the Weight of an Apis mellifera Beehive," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-13, April.
    3. Zhou, Kaile & Hu, Dingding & Li, Fangyi, 2022. "Impact of COVID-19 on private driving behavior: Evidence from electric vehicle charging data," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 164-178.
    4. de Souza Ramser, Claudia Aline & Souza, Adriano Mendonça & Souza, Francisca Mendonça & da Veiga, Claudimar Pereira & da Silva, Wesley Vieira, 2019. "The importance of principal components in studying mineral prices using vector autoregressive models: Evidence from the Brazilian economy," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 9-21.
    5. Alina Źróbek-Różańska & Marek Ogryzek & Anna Źróbek-Sokolnik, 2022. "Creating a Healthy Environment for Children: GIS Tools for Improving the Quality of the Social Welfare Management System," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(12), pages 1-19, June.
    6. Ueda, Renan Mitsuo & Souza, Adriano Mendonça & Menezes, Rui Manuel Campilho Pereira, 2020. "How macroeconomic variables affect admission and dismissal in the Brazilian electro-electronic sector: A VAR-based model and cluster analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 557(C).
    7. Zhang, Chi & Zhou, Kaile & Yang, Shanlin & Shao, Zhen, 2017. "Exploring the transformation and upgrading of China’s economy using electricity consumption data: A VAR–VEC based model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 473(C), pages 144-155.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. M. T. Alguacil & V. Orts, 2003. "Inward Foreign Direct Investment and Imports in Spain," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(3), pages 19-38.
    2. Ali Anari & James Kolari, 2001. "Stock Prices And Inflation," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 24(4), pages 587-602, December.
    3. Climent, Francisco & Meneu, Vicente, 2003. "Has 1997 Asian crisis increased information flows between international markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 111-143.
    4. Pami Dua & Nishita Raje & Satyananda Sahoo, 2004. "Interest Rate Modeling and Forecasting in India," Occasional papers 3, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
    5. Григорьев Р.А., 2019. "Одновременные Эффекты Несинхронных Временных Рядов: Проблемы Var-Модели," Журнал Экономика и математические методы (ЭММ), Центральный Экономико-Математический Институт (ЦЭМИ), vol. 55(2), pages 118-129, апрель.
    6. Le Fur, Eric, 2020. "Dynamics of the global fine art market prices," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 167-180.
    7. Rangan Gupta & Stephen Miller, 2012. "“Ripple effects” and forecasting home prices in Los Angeles, Las Vegas, and Phoenix," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 48(3), pages 763-782, June.
    8. Toru Konishi & Valerie A. Ramey & Clive W.J. Granger, 1993. "Stochastic Trends and Short-Run Relationships Between Financial Variables and Real Activity," NBER Working Papers 4275, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Sithole, Rumbidzai Praise & Eita, Joel Hinaunye, 2020. "A test of integration between the South African and selected African stock markets," MPRA Paper 101301, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know about Unit Roots," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 141-220, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Dimitris Georgoutsos & George Kouretas, 2001. "Common Stochastic Trends In International Stock Markets: Testing In An Integrated Framework," Working Papers 0104, University of Crete, Department of Economics.
    12. Ali F. Darrat, 2002. "Budget Balance Through Spending Cuts Or Tax Adjustments?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 20(3), pages 221-233, July.
    13. Michael S. Haigh & Nikos K. Nomikos & David A. Bessler, 2004. "Integration and Causality in International Freight Markets: Modeling with Error Correction and Directed Acyclic Graphs," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 71(1), pages 145-162, July.
    14. Pami Dua, 2023. "Macroeconomic Modelling and Bayesian Methods," Springer Books, in: Pami Dua (ed.), Macroeconometric Methods, chapter 0, pages 19-37, Springer.
    15. Eleni Constantinou & Avo Kazandjian & Georgios P. Kouretas & Vera Tahmazian, 2008. "Common Stochastic Trends Among The Cyprus Stock Exchange And The Ase, Lse And Nyse," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(4), pages 327-349, October.
    16. Baffes, John & Shah, Anwar, 1990. "Taxing choices in deficit reduction," Policy Research Working Paper Series 556, The World Bank.
    17. Shoesmith, Gary L., 1995. "Multiple cointegrating vectors, error correction, and forecasting with Litterman's model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 557-567, December.
    18. Shujie Yao & Dan Luo & Stephen Morgan, 2008. "Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index and Bank Stock Prices in China: A Causality Analysis," Discussion Papers 08/25, University of Nottingham, GEP.
    19. Adel A. Al-Sharkas & Marwan Al-Zoubi, 2011. "Stock Prices and Inflation: Evidence from Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Morocco," Working Papers 653, Economic Research Forum, revised 12 Jan 2011.
    20. Tsangyao Chang & WenRong Liu & Steven Caudill, 2004. "A re-examination of Wagner's law for ten countries based on cointegration and error-correction modelling techniques," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(8), pages 577-589.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:462:y:2016:i:c:p:21-30. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/physica-a-statistical-mechpplications/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.