Price variations in a stock market with many agents
Large variations in stock prices happen with sufficient frequency to raise doubts about existing models, which all fail to account for non-Gaussian statistics. We construct simple models of a stock market, and argue that the large variations may be due to a crowd effect, where agents imitate each other's behavior. The variations over different time scales can be related to each other in a systematic way, similar to the Levy stable distribution proposed by Mandelbrot to describe real market indices. In the simplest least realistic case, exact results for the statistics of the variations are derived by mapping onto a model of diffusing and annihilating particles, which has been solved by quantum field theory methods. When the agents imitate each other and respond to recent market volatility, different scaling behavior is obtained. In this case, the statistics of price variations is consistent with empirical observations. The interplay between “rational” traders whose behavior is derived from fundamental analysis of the stock, including dividends, and “noise traders”, whose behavior is governed solely by studying the market dynamics and the behavior of other traders, is investigated. When the relative number of rational traders is small, “bubbles” often occur, where the market price moves outside the range justified by fundamental market analysis. When the number of rational traders is larger, the market price is generally locked within the price range they define.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 246 (1997)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/physica-a-statistical-mechpplications/|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Grandmont, Jean-Michel, 1993.
"Behavioural heterogeneity and Cournot oligopoly equilibrium,"
Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 167-187, June.
- Jean-Michel Grandmont, 1993. "Behavioral Heterogeneity and Cournot Oligopoly Equilibrium," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1044, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Grandmont, Jean-Michel, 1993. "Behavioral heterogeneity and Cournot oligopoly equilibrium," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 9305, CEPREMAP.
- Gale, Douglas & Rosenthal, Robert W., 1999. "Experimentation, Imitation, and Stochastic Stability," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 1-40, January.
- Douglas Gale & Robert W. Rosenthal, 1996. "Experimentation, Imitation, and Stochastic Stability," Papers 0065, Boston University - Industry Studies Programme.
- Gale, D. & Rosental, R.W., 1996. "Experimentation, Imitation, and Stochastic Stability," Papers 65, Boston University - Industry Studies Programme.
- Alain Arneodo & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Rama Cont & Jean-Francois Muzy & Marc Potters & Didier Sornette, 1996. "Comment on "Turbulent cascades in foreign exchange markets"," Science & Finance (CFM) working paper archive 9607120, Science & Finance, Capital Fund Management. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:246:y:1997:i:3:p:430-453. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.