IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/pacfin/v61y2020ics0927538x20301256.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Australian policy uncertainty and corporate investment

Author

Listed:
  • Chen, Xikai
  • Le, Cao Hoang Anh
  • Shan, Yaowen
  • Taylor, Stephen

Abstract

This study examines the impact of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on capital investment by Australian firms. Following a replication of prior US evidence (Gulen and Ion 2016), we show that EPU has a persistent and negative effect (up to four years) on capital investment by Australian Stock Exchange (ASX) listed firms, in contrast to the more short-lived effect of EPU in the US. The different results are consistent with the high proportion of ASX-listed firms in the resources and mining industries, where investment projects frequently proceed in stages and have time-to-build considerations. In accordance with real option theory, the findings reinforce the notion that EPU can dampen investment opportunities due to investment irreversibility.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Xikai & Le, Cao Hoang Anh & Shan, Yaowen & Taylor, Stephen, 2020. "Australian policy uncertainty and corporate investment," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:pacfin:v:61:y:2020:i:c:s0927538x20301256
    DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2020.101341
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0927538X20301256
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.pacfin.2020.101341?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kristoffer P. Nimark, 2009. "A Structural Model of Australia as a Small Open Economy," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 42(1), pages 24-41, March.
    2. Angus Moore, 2017. "Measuring Economic Uncertainty and Its Effects," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 93(303), pages 550-575, December.
    3. Robert W. Faff, 2019. "Adopting a Structured Abstract Design to More Effectively Catch Reader Attention: An Application of the Pitching Research® Framework," Capital Markets Review, Malaysian Finance Association, vol. 27(2), pages 1-13.
    4. Stephen Kirchner, 2019. "State of Confusion: Economic Policy Uncertainty and International Trade and Investment," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 52(2), pages 178-199, June.
    5. Nicholas Bloom, 2009. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(3), pages 623-685, May.
    6. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
    7. Bar-Ilan, Avner & Strange, William C, 1996. "Investment Lags," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(3), pages 610-622, June.
    8. Wang, Yizhong & Chen, Carl R. & Huang, Ying Sophie, 2014. "Economic policy uncertainty and corporate investment: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 227-243.
    9. Helen Weeds, 2002. "Strategic Delay in a Real Options Model of R&D Competition," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 69(3), pages 729-747.
    10. Frank Jotzo, 2012. "The CCEP Australia Carbon Pricing Survey 2012: Policy Uncertainty Reigns but Carbon Price Likely to Stay," CCEP Working Papers 1206, Centre for Climate & Energy Policy, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    11. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    12. Ben S. Bernanke, 1983. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 98(1), pages 85-106.
    13. Masayuki Morikawa, 2016. "What Types of Policy Uncertainties Matter for Business?," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(5), pages 527-540, December.
    14. Brandon Julio & Youngsuk Yook, 2012. "Political Uncertainty and Corporate Investment Cycles," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(1), pages 45-84, February.
    15. Nagar, Venky & Schoenfeld, Jordan & Wellman, Laura, 2019. "The effect of economic policy uncertainty on investor information asymmetry and management disclosures," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 36-57.
    16. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    17. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-838, May.
    18. Gianni La Cava, 2005. "Financial Constraints, the User Cost of Capital and Corporate Investment in Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2005-12, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    19. Frank Jotzo & Tim Jordan & Nathan Fabian, 2012. "Policy Uncertainty about Australia's Carbon Price: Expert Survey Results and Implications for Investment," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 45(4), pages 395-409, December.
    20. Allayannis, George & Mozumdar, Abon, 2004. "The impact of negative cash flow and influential observations on investment-cash flow sensitivity estimates," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 901-930, May.
    21. Thang Long Tran, 2014. "Uncertainty and Investment: Evidence from Australian Firm Panel Data," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 90, pages 87-101, June.
    22. Huseyin Gulen & Mihai Ion, 2016. "Editor's Choice Policy Uncertainty and Corporate Investment," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(3), pages 523-564.
    23. Nicholas Bloom, 2017. "Observations on Uncertainty," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 50(1), pages 79-84, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cui, Xin & Wang, Chunfeng & Liao, Jing & Fang, Zhenming & Cheng, Feiyang, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty exposure and corporate innovation investment: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    2. Chen, Yanyan, 2022. "Does political turnover affect corporate investment? Evidence from China," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(PA).
    3. Shams, Syed & Gunaskerage, Abeyratna & Velayutham, Eswaran, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and acquisition performance: Australian evidence," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 286-308.
    4. Ma, Yong & Wang, Mengyuan, 2024. "Monetary policy shock and corporate innovation: Evidence from China," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 48(3).
    5. Wei-Fong Pan, 2019. "Geopolitical Risk and R&D investment," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2019-11, Department of Economics, University of Reading.
    6. Arbatli Saxegaard, Elif C. & Davis, Steven J. & Ito, Arata & Miake, Naoko, 2022. "Policy uncertainty in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    7. Tajaddini, Reza & Gholipour, Hassan F., 2021. "Economic uncertainty and business formation: A cross-country analysis," Journal of Business Venturing Insights, Elsevier, vol. 16(C).
    8. Jun, Xiao & Huang, Wenwei & Guo, Yiting & Cao, Yuqiang & Lu, Meiting, 2023. "Why does economic policy uncertainty increase firm-level pollutant emission?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    9. Ilyas, Muhammad & Khan, Aamir & Nadeem, Muhammad & Suleman, Muhammad Tahir, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty, oil price shocks and corporate investment: Evidence from the oil industry," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    10. Li, Kaifeng & Xia, Bobo & Chen, Yun & Ding, Ning & Wang, Jie, 2021. "Environmental uncertainty, financing constraints and corporate investment: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    11. Lee, Chi-Chuan & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Xiao, Shunyi, 2021. "Policy-related risk and corporate financing behavior: Evidence from China’s listed companies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 539-547.
    12. Saud Asaad Al‐Thaqeb & Barrak Ghanim Algharabali & Khaled Tareq Alabdulghafour, 2022. "The pandemic and economic policy uncertainty," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 2784-2794, July.
    13. Nguyen, Quang & Kim, Huong Trang, 2023. "An exploration on policy uncertainty as a driver of R&D activity," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    14. Wang, Fengrong & Mbanyele, William & Muchenje, Linda, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and stock liquidity: The mitigating effect of information disclosure," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    15. Panagiotidis, Theodore & Printzis, Panagiotis, 2020. "What is the investment loss due to uncertainty?," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    16. Chahine, Salim & Daher, Mai & Saade, Samer, 2021. "Doing good in periods of high uncertainty: Economic policy uncertainty, corporate social responsibility, and analyst forecast error," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    17. Jens, Candace E., 2017. "Political uncertainty and investment: Causal evidence from U.S. gubernatorial elections," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(3), pages 563-579.
    18. Long, Shaobo & Pei, Hongxia & Tian, Hao & Li, Fangfang, 2021. "Asymmetric impacts of economic policy uncertainty, capital cost, and raw material cost on China’s investment," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 129-144.
    19. Caixe, Daniel Ferreira, 2022. "Corporate governance and investment sensitivity to policy uncertainty in Brazil," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(PB).
    20. Alam, Ahmed W. & Farjana, Ashupta & Houston, Reza, 2023. "Firm investment steering through state-level policy uncertainty," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PC).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Capital investment; Policy uncertainty; Australian firms;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:pacfin:v:61:y:2020:i:c:s0927538x20301256. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/pacfin .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.