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The CCEP Australia Carbon Pricing Survey 2012: Policy Uncertainty Reigns but Carbon Price Likely to Stay

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  • Frank Jotzo

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Abstract

The inaugural Australia Carbon Pricing Survey elicits expectations about the future of carbon pricing from experts working for Australia's largest greenhouse gas emitting companies, the carbon finance and investment industry and selected other experts. The survey indicates pervasive uncertainty about the future of Australia's carbon pricing scheme, but also a strong expectation that carbon pricing will be a feature of Australia's economic policy framework in the medium to long term. 79% of respondents expect that there will be a carbon price in Australia in 2020. But 40% expect that the current scheme will be repealed by the end of 2016. Of those who expect repeal, almost half think that a carbon price will be re-instated by 2020. Factoring in expectations of a possible zero carbon price, the average expected effective Australian carbon price falls from its initial level of $23 per tonne of carbon dioxide equivalent to $10 to $11 per tonne during 2016-18, before climbing to $22 per tonne in 2025. Assessments vary greatly between respondents, illustrating the extent of policy uncertainty. Nevertheless, 69% of respondents from large carbon emitters indicate that their companies have cut emissions in anticipation of a carbon price, and 84% expect their company to do so over the next three years-not withstanding significant uncertainty about whether the carbon price may be repealed. The survey also covers expectations about future prices in the EU emissions trading scheme and credits under the Clean Development Mechanism, the Australian price floor and linking with the EU scheme, and the future of Australia's national emissions target.

Suggested Citation

  • Frank Jotzo, 2012. "The CCEP Australia Carbon Pricing Survey 2012: Policy Uncertainty Reigns but Carbon Price Likely to Stay," CCEP Working Papers 1206, Centre for Climate Economics & Policy, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  • Handle: RePEc:een:ccepwp:1206
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    File URL: http://ccep.anu.edu.au/data/2012/pdf/wpaper/CCEP1206.pdf
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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Australia's emissions projections: bleak but too pessimistic
      by Frank Jotzo, Director, Centre for Climate Economics and Policy at Australian National University in The Conversation on 2012-11-02 09:11:40
    2. Despite its imminent demise, the carbon price has cut emissions
      by Frank Jotzo, Director, Centre for Climate Economics and Policy at Australian National University in The Conversation on 2014-07-17 05:13:03

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Carbon pricing; emissions trading; public policy; expert survey; Australia;

    JEL classification:

    • Q52 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Pollution Control Adoption and Costs; Distributional Effects; Employment Effects
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy

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