IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/matcom/v81y2011i7p1365-1374.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Investigating other leading indicators influencing Australian domestic tourism demand

Author

Listed:
  • Yap, Ghialy
  • Allen, David

Abstract

In the tourism demand literature, much of the research focuses on income and price variables as demand determinants for travel. Nevertheless, the literature has neglected other possible indicators such as consumers’ perceptions of the future course of the economy, household debt and the number of hours worked in paid jobs. In fact, several studies found that these indicators could influence consumers in making decisions to travel. In this paper, we examine whether there are other indicators that can influence future Australian domestic tourism demand. The econometric model used in this study is a panel three-stage least squares (3SLS) model. Using the data on Australian domestic tourism demand, the empirical results reveal several points: first, it is found that the consumer sentiment index has significant impacts on VFR, but not on holiday tourism. Furthermore, the business confidence index has no influence on business tourism demand. The study also finds that an increase in household debt could encourage more Australians to travel domestically, indicating that Australians may consider increasing debt as their confidence to spend increases. Lastly, working hours have a statistically significant effect in the case of holiday tourism data.

Suggested Citation

  • Yap, Ghialy & Allen, David, 2011. "Investigating other leading indicators influencing Australian domestic tourism demand," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 81(7), pages 1365-1374.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:matcom:v:81:y:2011:i:7:p:1365-1374
    DOI: 10.1016/j.matcom.2010.05.005
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378475410001540
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.matcom.2010.05.005?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hsiao-I Kuo & Chia-Lin Chang & Bing-Wen Huang & Chi-Chung Chen & Michael McAleer, 2009. "Estimating the Impact of Avian Flu on International Tourism Demand Using Panel Data," Tourism Economics, , vol. 15(3), pages 501-511, September.
    2. Hultkrantz,L., 1995. "On Determinants of Swedish Recreational Domestic and Outbound Travel,1989-1993," Papers 7, Uppsala - Working Paper Series.
    3. Larry Dwyer & Peter Forsyth (ed.), 2006. "International Handbook on the Economics of Tourism," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 2827.
    4. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    5. Willem A. Naudé & Andrea Saayman, 2005. "Determinants of Tourist Arrivals in Africa: A Panel Data Regression Analysis," Tourism Economics, , vol. 11(3), pages 365-391, September.
    6. Sarah Gelper & Aurelie Lemmens & Christophe Croux, 2007. "Consumer sentiment and consumer spending: decomposing the Granger causal relationship in the time domain," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(1), pages 1-11.
    7. Lindsay W. Turner & Yvette Reisinger & Stephen F. Witt, 1998. "Tourism Demand Analysis Using Structural Equation Modelling," Tourism Economics, , vol. 4(4), pages 301-323, December.
    8. Easaw, Joshy Z. & Heravi, Saeed M., 2004. "Evaluating consumer sentiments as predictors of UK household consumption behavior: Are they accurate and useful?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 671-681.
    9. Jaume Rossello-Nadal, 2001. "Forecasting Turning Points in International Visitor Arrivals in the Balearic Islands," Tourism Economics, , vol. 7(4), pages 365-380, December.
    10. Nada Kulendran & Sarath Divisekera, 2007. "Measuring the Economic Impact of Australian Tourism Marketing Expenditure," Tourism Economics, , vol. 13(2), pages 261-274, June.
    11. Harris, Richard D. F. & Tzavalis, Elias, 1999. "Inference for unit roots in dynamic panels where the time dimension is fixed," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 201-226, August.
    12. Francisco J. Ledesma-Rodríguez & Manuel Navarro-Ibáñez & Jorge V. Pérez-Rodríguez, 2001. "Panel Data and Tourism: A Case Study of Tenerife," Tourism Economics, , vol. 7(1), pages 75-88, March.
    13. Katona, George, 1974. "Psychology and Consumer Economics," Journal of Consumer Research, Journal of Consumer Research Inc., vol. 1(1), pages 1-8, June.
    14. Nenad Njegovan, 2005. "A leading indicator approach to predicting short-term shifts in demand for business travel by air to and from the UK," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(6), pages 421-432.
    15. Gelper, S. & Lemmens, A. & Croux, C., 2007. "Consumer sentiment and consumer spending : Decomposing the granger causal relationship in the time domain," Other publications TiSEM 55ac7230-2985-41f1-a42c-7, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Khandokar Istiak, 2023. "Psychological factors of Canadian and Mexican tourists and the US tourism sector," Tourism Economics, , vol. 29(5), pages 1328-1354, August.
    2. Uju Violet Alola & Darya Baeva & Andrew Adewale Alola, 2023. "Determining the (A)symmetric Role of Business–Consumer Confidence in Outward–Inward Tourism in Russia: A Competitiveness Perspective," International Journal of Global Business and Competitiveness, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 22-34, June.
    3. Faisal Nazir Zargar & Dilip Kumar, 2023. "Market fear, investor mood, sentiment, economic uncertainty and tourism sector in the United States amid COVID-19 pandemic: A spillover analysis," Tourism Economics, , vol. 29(2), pages 551-558, March.
    4. Shaidathul Jemin, 2023. "The Relationship between Macroeconomic Factors and Tourism Demand for OIC Countries ," GATR Journals jber238, Global Academy of Training and Research (GATR) Enterprise.
    5. Heng Jiang & Chunlu Liu, 2011. "Forecasting construction demand: a vector error correction model with dummy variables," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(9), pages 969-979, August.
    6. Noelia Oses & Jon Kepa Gerrikagoitia & Aurkene Alzua, 2016. "Modelling and prediction of a destination’s monthly average daily rate and occupancy rate based on hotel room prices offered online," Tourism Economics, , vol. 22(6), pages 1380-1403, December.
    7. Dragouni, Mina & Filis, George & Gavriilidis, Konstantinos & Santamaria, Daniel, 2016. "Sentiment, mood and outbound tourism demand," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 80-96.
    8. Yap, Ghialy, 2013. "The impacts of exchange rates on Australia's domestic and outbound travel markets," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 139-150.
    9. Chiang-Ming Chen, 2013. "Research Note: Estimating the Work Time Effect on Hotel Room Demand," Tourism Economics, , vol. 19(6), pages 1461-1466, December.
    10. Wang, Yu Shan, 2014. "Effects of budgetary constraints on international tourism expenditures," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 9-18.
    11. Sagaert, Yves R. & Aghezzaf, El-Houssaine & Kourentzes, Nikolaos & Desmet, Bram, 2018. "Tactical sales forecasting using a very large set of macroeconomic indicators," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 264(2), pages 558-569.
    12. Silva, Emmanuel Sirimal & Hassani, Hossein, 2022. "‘Modelling’ UK tourism demand using fashion retail sales," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    13. Silva, Emmanuel Sirimal & Ghodsi, Zara & Ghodsi, Mansi & Heravi, Saeed & Hassani, Hossein, 2017. "Cross country relations in European tourist arrivals," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 151-168.
    14. Athanasopoulos, George & Deng, Minfeng & Li, Gang & Song, Haiyan, 2014. "Modelling substitution between domestic and outbound tourism in Australia: A system-of-equations approach," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 159-170.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Seetaram, Neelu, 2010. "Computing airfare elasticities or opening Pandora's box," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 27-36.
    2. Neelu Seetaram & Sylvain Petit, 2012. "Panel data analysis in Tourism Research," Post-Print hal-01831529, HAL.
    3. E. M. Ekanayake & Mihalis Halkides & John R. Ledgerwood, 2012. "Inbound International Tourism To The United States: A Panel Data Analysis," International Journal of Management and Marketing Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 5(3), pages 15-27.
    4. Mohd Haniff, NorAzza & Masih, Mansur, 2016. "Does consumer sentiment predict consumer spending in Malaysia? an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach," MPRA Paper 69769, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Todd Kuethe & Valerien Pede, 2011. "Regional Housing Price Cycles: A Spatio-temporal Analysis Using US State-level Data," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(5), pages 563-574.
    6. Hassan F Gholipour & Robin Nunkoo & Behzad Foroughi & Hassan Kalantari Daronkola, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty, consumer confidence in major economies and outbound tourism to African countries," Tourism Economics, , vol. 28(4), pages 979-994, June.
    7. Guizzardi, Andrea & Stacchini, Annalisa, 2015. "Real-time forecasting regional tourism with business sentiment surveys," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 213-223.
    8. George Halkos & Iacovos Psarianos, 2016. "Exploring the effect of including the environment in the neoclassical growth model," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 18(3), pages 339-358, July.
    9. M. Shahe Emran & Dilip Mookherjee & Forhad Shilpi & M. Helal Uddin, 2021. "Credit Rationing and Pass-Through in Supply Chains: Theory and Evidence from Bangladesh," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(3), pages 202-236, July.
    10. Andros Gregoriou, 2010. "Corporate Valuation and Dividends: UK Evidence from Panel Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 38(1), pages 15-22, March.
    11. Na Zhang & Jinqian Deng & Fayyaz Ahmad & Muhammad Umar Draz & Nabila Abid, 2023. "The dynamic association between public environmental demands, government environmental governance, and green technology innovation in China: evidence from panel VAR model," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(9), pages 9851-9875, September.
    12. In Choi, 2019. "Unit Root Tests for Dependent Micropanels," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 70(2), pages 145-167, June.
    13. Nagmi Moftah Aimer, 2020. "Renewable energy consumption, financial development and economic growth: Evidence from panel data for the Middle East and North African countries," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(3), pages 2058-2072.
    14. Simplice A. Asongu & Joseph Nnanna & Paul N. Acha-Anyi, 2021. "The Openness Hypothesis in the Context of Economic Development in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Moderating Role of Trade Dynamics on FDI," The International Trade Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(4), pages 336-359, July.
    15. Uk Heo & Min Ye, 2016. "Defense Spending and Economic Growth around the Globe: The Direct and Indirect Link," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(5), pages 774-796, October.
    16. Lenka Mynaříková & Vít Pošta, 2023. "The Effect of Consumer Confidence and Subjective Well-being on Consumers’ Spending Behavior," Journal of Happiness Studies, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 429-453, February.
    17. Thomas Lux & Jaba Ghonghadze, 2011. "Modeling the Dynamics of EU Economic Sentiment Indicators: An Interaction-Based Approach," Post-Print hal-00711445, HAL.
    18. Khribich, Abir & Kacem, Rami H. & Dakhlaoui, Ahlem, 2021. "Causality nexus of renewable energy consumption and social development: Evidence from high-income countries," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 14-22.
    19. Bin Qiu & Kuntal K. Das & W. Robert Reed, 2020. "The Effect of Exchange Rates on Chinese Trade: A Dual Margin Approach," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(15), pages 3709-3731, December.
    20. Jaroslava Hlouskova & Martin Wagner, 2006. "The Performance of Panel Unit Root and Stationarity Tests: Results from a Large Scale Simulation Study," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(1), pages 85-116.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:matcom:v:81:y:2011:i:7:p:1365-1374. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/mathematics-and-computers-in-simulation/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.