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Forecasting Turning Points in International Visitor Arrivals in the Balearic Islands

Author

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  • Jaume Rossello-Nadal

    (Departament d'Economia i Empresa, Universitat de les Illes Balears, Campus Universitari - Edifici Mateu Orfila, Carretera de Valldemossa km 7.5, 07071 Palma Mallorca, Balears, Spain)

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to forecast turning points in international visitor arrivals to the Balearic Islands using the leading indicator approach. The paper prepares two indexes, one for the UK and one for Germany using macro-economic variables. The UK and Germany are the major tourist markets for the Balearic Islands and represent more than 80% of international visitor arrivals. Previous studies have used econometric models and time-series models to forecast the number of international visitor arrivals, but uncertainty persists.

Suggested Citation

  • Jaume Rossello-Nadal, 2001. "Forecasting Turning Points in International Visitor Arrivals in the Balearic Islands," Tourism Economics, , vol. 7(4), pages 365-380, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:toueco:v:7:y:2001:i:4:p:365-380
    DOI: 10.5367/000000001101297928
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Egon Smeral & Michael Wüger, 2004. "Does Complexity Matter? Methods for Improving Forecasting Accuracy in Tourism," WIFO Working Papers 225, WIFO.
    2. Yap, Ghialy & Allen, David, 2011. "Investigating other leading indicators influencing Australian domestic tourism demand," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 81(7), pages 1365-1374.
    3. Lei Ping, 2011. "Research Note: Long-Lasting Effects and Welfare Costs of Fluctuations," Tourism Economics, , vol. 17(4), pages 933-942, August.
    4. Jong, Meng-Chang & Soh, Ann-Ni, 2021. "Responsible Recovery from COVID-19: An Empirical Overview of Tourism Industry," MPRA Paper 107661, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Elisa Jorge-González & Enrique González-Dávila & Raquel Martín-Rivero & Domingo Lorenzo-Díaz, 2020. "Univariate and multivariate forecasting of tourism demand using state-space models," Tourism Economics, , vol. 26(4), pages 598-621, June.
    6. Nada Kulendran & Kevin K.F. Wong, 2009. "Predicting Quarterly Hong Kong Tourism Demand Growth Rates, Directional Changes and Turning Points with Composite Leading Indicators," Tourism Economics, , vol. 15(2), pages 307-322, June.
    7. Wan, Shui Ki & Song, Haiyan, 2018. "Forecasting turning points in tourism growth," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 156-167.
    8. Jong, Meng-Chang, 2020. "Empirical Review on Tourism Demand and COVID-19," MPRA Paper 103919, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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