IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/matcom/v78y2008i2p351-356.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Detecting multiple mean breaks at unknown points in official time series

Author

Listed:
  • Cappelli, Carmela
  • Penny, Richard N.
  • Rea, William S.
  • Reale, Marco

Abstract

In this paper, we propose a computationally effective approach to detect multiple structural breaks in the mean occurring at unknown dates. We present a non-parametric approach that exploits, in the framework of least squares regression trees, the contiguity property of data generating processes in time series data. The proposed approach is applied first to simulated data and then to the Quarterly Gross Domestic Product in New Zealand to assess some of anomalous observations indicated by the seasonal adjustment procedure implemented in X12-ARIMA are actually structural breaks.

Suggested Citation

  • Cappelli, Carmela & Penny, Richard N. & Rea, William S. & Reale, Marco, 2008. "Detecting multiple mean breaks at unknown points in official time series," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 78(2), pages 351-356.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:matcom:v:78:y:2008:i:2:p:351-356
    DOI: 10.1016/j.matcom.2008.01.041
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378475408000475
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    2. Bruce E. Hansen, 2001. "The New Econometrics of Structural Change: Dating Breaks in U.S. Labour Productivity," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 117-128, Fall.
    3. Findley, David F, et al, 1998. "New Capabilities and Methods of the X-12-ARIMA Seasonal-Adjustment Program," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(2), pages 127-152, April.
    4. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-856, July.
    5. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Qin, Ruibing & Tian, Zheng & Jin, Hao & Zhang, Xiaowei, 2010. "Strong convergence rate of robust estimator of change point," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 80(10), pages 2026-2032.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Partitioning; Regression trees; X-12 ARIMA;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:matcom:v:78:y:2008:i:2:p:351-356. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/mathematics-and-computers-in-simulation/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.