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Testing for Parameter Stability in Dynamic Models Across Frequencies

  • Bertrand Candelon


    (University of Maastricht - Department of Economics)

  • Gianluca Cubadda


    (University of Rome II - Department of Financial and Quantitative Economics)

This paper contributes to the econometric literature on structural breaks by proposing a test for parameter stability in VAR models at a particular frequency w, where w [0, p]. When a dynamic model is affected by a structural break, the new tests allow for detecting which frequencies of the data are responsible for parameter instability. If the model is locally stable at the frequencies of interest, the whole sample size can be then exploited despite the presence of a break. Two empirical examples illustrate that local stability can concern only the lower frequencies (change in the U.S. monetary policy in the early 80'(s) or higher frequencies (decrease in the postwar U.S. productivity).

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Paper provided by Tor Vergata University, CEIS in its series CEIS Research Paper with number 82.

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Length: 22
Date of creation: 31 May 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:rtv:ceisrp:82
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  1. Michael Dotsey, 1998. "The predictive content of the interest rate term spread for future economic growth," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 31-51.
  2. Candelon, Bertrand & L├╝tkepohl, Helmut, 2000. "On the reliability of chow type test for parameter constancy in multivariate dynamic models," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2000,95, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
  3. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
  4. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-56, July.
  5. Plosser, Charles I. & Geert Rouwenhorst, K., 1994. "International term structures and real economic growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 133-155, February.
  6. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1988. "Production, growth and business cycles : II. New directions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 309-341.
  7. Arturo Estrella & Anthony P. Rodrigues & Sebastian Schich, 2000. "How stable is the predictive power of the yield curve? evidence from Germany and the United States," Staff Reports 113, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  8. Jushan Bai, 2000. "Vector Autoregressive Models with Structural Changes in Regression Coefficients and in Variance-Covariance Matrices," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 1(2), pages 303-339, November.
  9. Peter Reinhard Hansen, 2000. "Structural Changes in the Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Model," Working Papers 2000-20, Brown University, Department of Economics.
  10. Cubadda, Gianluca, 2001. " Complex Reduced Rank Models for Seasonally Cointegrated Time Series," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 63(4), pages 497-511, September.
  11. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
  12. Robert G. King & Charles I. Plosser & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1987. "Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 2229, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Zhongjun Qu & Pierre Perron, 2007. "Estimating and Testing Structural Changes in Multivariate Regressions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(2), pages 459-502, 03.
  14. Arturo Estrella & Gikas A. Hardouvelis, 1989. "The term structure as a predictor of real economic activity," Research Paper 8907, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  15. Boulier, Bryan L. & Stekler, H. O., 2000. "The term spread as a monthly cyclical indicator: an evaluation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 79-83, January.
  16. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Vigfusson, Robert J., 2003. "Maximum likelihood in the frequency domain: the importance of time-to-plan," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 789-815, May.
  17. Centoni, Marco & Cubadda, Gianluca, 2003. "Measuring the business cycle effects of permanent and transitory shocks in cointegrated time series," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 45-51, July.
  18. Breitung, Jorg & Candelon, Bertrand, 2006. "Testing for short- and long-run causality: A frequency-domain approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(2), pages 363-378, June.
  19. Bruce E. Hansen, 2001. "The New Econometrics of Structural Change: Dating Breaks in U.S. Labour Productivity," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 117-128, Fall.
  20. Jushan Bai & Robin L. Lumsdaine & James H. Stock, 1998. "Testing For and Dating Common Breaks in Multivariate Time Series," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 65(3), pages 395-432.
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