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The carbon reduction effects of industrial land transition: Intelligently constructed dataset of 16,067 parcels reveals multi-dimensional interactions and nonlinear mechanisms

Author

Listed:
  • Kong, Weilong
  • Pan, Yuxin
  • Zhou, Huixin
  • Shen, Geoffrey Qiping
  • Zhang, Dong
  • Tang, Ling
  • Zhang, Zhi
  • Zhang, Zhengfeng
  • Hu, Qiyu

Abstract

Industrial land is a frontline for addressing global climate change, yet the carbon effects of its multi-dimensional transitions remain unclear. Taking the Southern Jiangsu Urban Agglomeration in China as a case study, this paper constructs a four-dimensional transition analysis framework of “quantity—spatial—functional—intensity”. The analysis is based on data from 16,067 industrial land parcels (2000–2020), generated through multi-source data and machine learning. Using the two-way fixed effects model and the Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression (GTWR) model, this study explores the influence mechanism of multi-dimensional transitions of industrial land on carbon emissions. The findings reveal that: (1) The quantity transition of industrial land significantly promotes carbon emissions, while spatial decentralization, functional upgrading, and intensity improvement inhibit carbon emissions; (2) There are interactive synergistic carbon-reducing effects among spatial-functional-intensity transitions, which can offset the carbon-increasing effects of quantity expansion. (3) The impacts of industrial land transition exhibit nonlinearity and heterogeneity. For instance, the impact of intensity transition on emissions follows a “U-shaped” pattern, and the carbon reduction effect of spatial transition exhibits a threshold effect as agglomeration levels increase. This study confirms that the impact of industrial land transition on carbon reduction demonstrates dimensional differences, interactivity, and spatiotemporal dynamics. It provides a synergistic governance pathway of “quantity control—spatial optimization—functional upgrading—intensity threshold regulation” for the low-carbon transition of industrial land in urban agglomerations, offering significant implications for improving the coordination mechanisms between land use and carbon reduction policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Kong, Weilong & Pan, Yuxin & Zhou, Huixin & Shen, Geoffrey Qiping & Zhang, Dong & Tang, Ling & Zhang, Zhi & Zhang, Zhengfeng & Hu, Qiyu, 2026. "The carbon reduction effects of industrial land transition: Intelligently constructed dataset of 16,067 parcels reveals multi-dimensional interactions and nonlinear mechanisms," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:lauspo:v:168:y:2026:i:c:s0264837726001687
    DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2026.108084
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