Towards COP29 climate equity: Multi-scale trade-driven inequality in China’s land-use carbon emissions

The inadequacy of global climate finance commitments, exemplified by COP29 (Conference of the Parties 29), has intensified pressure to identify equitable and market-driven strategies for climate adaptation. Multi-scale trade fluxes across the local system boundary exhibit diverse environmental impacts, including regional inequality in carbon emissions. Although land-use carbon emissions (LUCE) are the second-largest source of anthropogenic carbon emissions, their trade-driven spatial inequality remains insufficiently understood. Hence, this study aims to develop a multi-scale model to assess LUCE inequality within China. A multi-scale carbon input-output model is integrated to evaluate LUCE from local, domestic, and foreign trade. The Gini coefficient and its decomposition are utilized to analyze the contribution of multi-scale trade to LUCE inequality. The findings indicate that LUCE in northwest China is largely related to local inputs. Meanwhile, emissions in eastern coastal regions are mainly influenced by domestic and foreign trade. The local inputs contributing to the provinces’ final demand are responsible for 43 % of China’s total LUCE, demonstrating a Gini coefficient of 0.46. The equalizing effect of intermediate and final trade in reducing the spatial disparity of LUCE across provinces decreases the Gini coefficient to 0.29. With the assistance of intermediate and final trade, the reduction of China’s interprovincial inequality in LUCE is achieved by 33 % and 29 %, respectively. Crucially, we demonstrate that trade-integrated land management can reconcile emission efficiency with regional equity, fostering collective action essential for achieving COP29’s adaptation targets. This work advances frameworks for linking market tools, spatial justice, and land-use policies in climate-vulnerable economies.