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Accuracy of wind energy forecasts in Great Britain and prospects for improvement

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  • Forbes, Kevin F.
  • Zampelli, Ernest M.

Abstract

The metric representing the wind energy forecast error, when reported as a percent, is calculated quite differently than the error metrics for electricity transmission, electricity load, or in other industries such as manufacturing when they are also reported as a percent. The resulting calculated metric is quite different from what would be reported if the method utilized elsewhere was employed. This paper examines the possible forecast assessment and operational challenges associated with this finding. Concerning the prospects for improvement, the errors reported in MW of energy have a systematic component. With this insight, we developed a model to improve accuracy.

Suggested Citation

  • Forbes, Kevin F. & Zampelli, Ernest M., 2020. "Accuracy of wind energy forecasts in Great Britain and prospects for improvement," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:juipol:v:67:y:2020:i:c:s0957178720301053
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jup.2020.101111
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Peter Bauer & Alan Thorpe & Gilbert Brunet, 2015. "The quiet revolution of numerical weather prediction," Nature, Nature, vol. 525(7567), pages 47-55, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Couto, António & Estanqueiro, Ana, 2022. "Enhancing wind power forecast accuracy using the weather research and forecasting numerical model-based features and artificial neuronal networks," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 201(P1), pages 1076-1085.
    2. Jastrzebska, Agnieszka & Morales Hernández, Alejandro & Nápoles, Gonzalo & Salgueiro, Yamisleydi & Vanhoof, Koen, 2022. "Measuring wind turbine health using fuzzy-concept-based drifting models," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 730-740.
    3. Forbes, Kevin F., 2023. "Demand for grid-supplied electricity in the presence of distributed solar energy resources: Evidence from New York City," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    4. Philippe de Bekker & Sho Cremers & Sonam Norbu & David Flynn & Valentin Robu, 2023. "Improving the Efficiency of Renewable Energy Assets by Optimizing the Matching of Supply and Demand Using a Smart Battery Scheduling Algorithm," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(5), pages 1-26, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Wind energy forecasting; Forecast accuracy;

    JEL classification:

    • Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources
    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting

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