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Where the rubber meets the road: Pavement damage reduces traffic safety and speed

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  • Bock, Margaret
  • Cardazzi, Alexander
  • Humphreys, Brad R.

Abstract

Road maintenance constitutes a significant component of transportation spending at all levels of government. Formulation of an efficient transportation infrastructure policy requires information about factors affecting road and traffic conditions. We generate the first causal evidence that decreasing pavement quality increases vehicle crash rates and decreases average speed. Results from parallel segment and instrumental variable models using spatially and temporally disaggregated data from Federal-Aid Highway System (FAHS) roads in California show statistically and economically significant increases in vehicle crash rates and decreases in average vehicle speed caused by road damage. These results produce a range of effect sizes that exceed those using standard road quality data. The results imply significant increases in social costs attributable to road damage.

Suggested Citation

  • Bock, Margaret & Cardazzi, Alexander & Humphreys, Brad R., 2025. "Where the rubber meets the road: Pavement damage reduces traffic safety and speed," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:juecon:v:149:y:2025:i:c:s0094119025000518
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2025.103786
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    Cited by:

    1. Michael Cary & Brad Humphreys, 2026. "The Impact of Road Quality on Nearby House Prices," Working Papers 26-07, Department of Economics, West Virginia University.
    2. Gertler, Paul J. & Gonzalez-Navarro, Marco & Gračner, Tadeja & Rothenberg, Alexander D., 2024. "Road maintenance and local economic development: Evidence from Indonesia’s highways," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    3. Gertler, Paul J & Gonzalez-Navarro, Marco & Gracner, Tadeja & Rothenberg, Alexander, 2023. "Road Maintenance and Local Economic Development," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt38m633q0, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
    4. Chen, Jiandong & Yu, Jie & Shen, Zhiyang & Song, Malin & Zhou, Ziqi, 2023. "Debt financing and maintenance expenditure: Theory and evidence on government-operated toll roads in China," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 47(1).
    5. Margaret Bock & Benjamin Blemings, 2024. "Road maintenance over the local election cycle," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 198(1), pages 129-151, January.
    6. Kim, Jinwon, 2022. "Does roadwork improve road speed? Evidence from urban freeways in California," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • H42 - Public Economics - - Publicly Provided Goods - - - Publicly Provided Private Goods
    • L92 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Railroads and Other Surface Transportation
    • L98 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Government Policy
    • R41 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion; Travel Time; Safety and Accidents; Transportation Noise
    • R42 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Government and Private Investment Analysis; Road Maintenance; Transportation Planning

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