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Ongoing ascent to the helium production plateau--Insights from system dynamics

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  • Cai, Zhiming
  • Clarke, Richard H.
  • Glowacki, Bartek A.
  • Nuttall, William J.
  • Ward, Nick

Abstract

Recent, pre-downturn, disturbance in the global helium market can be traced to the tight supply-demand position, which characterizes today's changing helium supply structure. A detailed System Dynamics model provides fresh insight into the helium question and suggests a production path that is closely associated with future natural gas production. Venting of un-extracted helium to the atmosphere remains a central issue. The model indicates that improving resource exploitation strategies might extend a production plateau that emerges in the 2030s. Substitution will result in more helium being vented. To mitigate this, the industry needs to ensure security of supply (particularly after the Bureau of Land Management reserve is sold).

Suggested Citation

  • Cai, Zhiming & Clarke, Richard H. & Glowacki, Bartek A. & Nuttall, William J. & Ward, Nick, 2010. "Ongoing ascent to the helium production plateau--Insights from system dynamics," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 77-89, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:35:y:2010:i:2:p:77-89
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Pindyck, Robert S, 1978. "The Optimal Exploration and Production of Nonrenewable Resources," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(5), pages 841-861, October.
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    3. John Livernois & Patrick Martin, 2001. "Price, scarcity rent, and a modified r per cent rule for non-renewable resources," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 34(3), pages 827-845, August.
    4. Chi, K.C. & Reiner, D.M. & Nuttall, W.J., 2009. "Dynamics of the UK Natural Gas Industry: System Dynamics Modelling and Long-Term Energy Policy Analysis," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0922, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    5. Andrew Caplin & John Leahy, 2001. "Psychological Expected Utility Theory and Anticipatory Feelings," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 116(1), pages 55-79.
    6. Dennis Epple & Lester Lave, 1980. "Helium: Investments in the Future," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 11(2), pages 617-630, Autumn.
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    Cited by:

    1. Rooney, Matthew & Nuttall, William J. & Kazantzis, Nikolaos, 2015. "A dynamic model of the global uranium market and the nuclear fuel cycle," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 50-60.
    2. Massol, O. & Rifaat, O., 2016. "Phasing out the U.S. Federal Helium Reserve: Policy insights from a world helium model," Working Papers 16/03, Department of Economics, City University London.
    3. repec:eee:transe:v:110:y:2018:i:c:p:168-188 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Saldarriaga-Isaza, Adrián & Villegas-Palacio, Clara & Arango, Santiago, 2013. "The public good dilemma of a non-renewable common resource: A look at the facts of artisanal gold mining," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 224-232.
    5. Ponzo, Ricardo & Dyner, Isaac & Arango, Santiago & Larsen, Erik R., 2011. "Regulation and development of the Argentinean gas market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1070-1079, March.

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