IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jrpoli/v103y2025ics0301420725001059.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The role of political stability on crude oil production in Cameroon: Evidence from the ARDL and NARDL models

Author

Listed:
  • Stevy Sama, Jean Marie
  • Nna Nna, Théodore Patrice
  • Sapnken, Flavian Emmanuel
  • Tamba, Jean Gaston

Abstract

The development of a country's energy resources is strongly influenced by its institutional environment. This study analyses the symmetric and asymmetric effects, as well as the causal relationships between political stability and crude oil production in Cameroon, taking into account government efficiency, foreign direct investment (FDI) and GDP per capita over the period 1996–2022. To do this, we used the Toda Yamamoto causality test, as well as linear autoregressive models (ARDL) and non-linear autoregressive models (NARDL). The results show that the short-term negative impacts on crude oil production are due to foreign direct investment (FDI), GDP per capita and political stability. However, in the long term, political stability, FDI and government efficiency have a positive effect on crude oil production. An abruptly favourable shift in political stability leads to a reduction in crude oil production in the short term, while there is no significant impact in the long term. In terms of causality, we identified a unidirectional relationship from political stability to crude oil production and government effectiveness, as well as a bidirectional relationship between GDP per capita and political stability. These results suggest that political stability contributes to reversing Cameroon's oil curse through government efficiency, FDI and economic growth. It is therefore imperative for the Cameroonian government to strengthen political stability as an essential pillar of economic prosperity. This study stands out from previous work by integrating three complementary analytical approaches: ARDL, NARDL and the causality test, to analyse the complex relationship between crude oil production and political stability. In addition to this innovative combination of methods, it also represents the first initiative to explore this dynamic in sub-Saharan Africa, with a particular focus on Cameroon.

Suggested Citation

  • Stevy Sama, Jean Marie & Nna Nna, Théodore Patrice & Sapnken, Flavian Emmanuel & Tamba, Jean Gaston, 2025. "The role of political stability on crude oil production in Cameroon: Evidence from the ARDL and NARDL models," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:103:y:2025:i:c:s0301420725001059
    DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105563
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301420725001059
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105563?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Godfred Alufar Bokpin & Lord Mensah & Michael E. Asamoah, 2015. "Foreign direct investment and natural resources in Africa," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 42(4), pages 608-621, September.
    2. Chen, Xia & Rahaman, Md Atikur & Murshed, Muntasir & Mahmood, Haider & Hossain, Md Afzal, 2023. "Causality analysis of the impacts of petroleum use, economic growth, and technological innovation on carbon emissions in Bangladesh," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 267(C).
    3. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Cunado, Juncal & Filis, George & Gracia, Fernando Perez de, 2017. "Oil dependence, quality of political institutions and economic growth: A panel VAR approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 147-163.
    4. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    5. Lan, Yueqin & Krishnan, Deepika & Zheng, Jiyuan, 2023. "Impact of international trade on crude oil in political unstable economies: Evidence from quantile regression," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    6. Badeeb, Ramez Abubakr & Lean, Hooi Hooi & Smyth, Russell, 2016. "Oil curse and finance–growth nexus in Malaysia: The role of investment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 154-165.
    7. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    8. Wang, Erhong & Gozgor, Giray & Mahalik, Mantu Kumar & Patel, Gupteswar & Hu, Guoheng, 2022. "Effects of institutional quality and political risk on the renewable energy consumption in the OECD countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    9. Abman, Ryan & Longbrake, Gabrial, 2023. "Resource development and governance declines: The case of the Chad–Cameroon petroleum pipeline," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    10. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
    11. Badeeb, Ramez Abubakr & Lean, Hooi Hooi & Clark, Jeremy, 2017. "The evolution of the natural resource curse thesis: A critical literature survey," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 123-134.
    12. Peng, Xuan & Mousa, Saeed & Sarfraz, Muddassar & Abdelmohsen A, Nassani & Haffar, Mohamed, 2023. "Improving mineral resource management by accurate financial management: Studying through artificial intelligence tools," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    13. Ongo Nkoa, Bruno Emmanuel & Tadadjeu, Sosson & Njangang, Henri, 2023. "Rich in the dark: Natural resources and energy poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    14. Cappelli, Federica & Carnazza, Giovanni & Vellucci, Pierluigi, 2023. "Crude oil, international trade and political stability: Do network relations matter?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    15. Robert Engle & Clive Granger, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    16. Atil, Ahmed & Nawaz, Kishwar & Lahiani, Amine & Roubaud, David, 2020. "Are natural resources a blessing or a curse for financial development in Pakistan? The importance of oil prices, economic growth and economic globalization," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    17. Cai, Yifei & Wu, Yanrui, 2019. "Time-varied causality between US partisan conflict shock and crude oil return," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    18. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2005. "The saving and investment nexus for China: evidence from cointegration tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(17), pages 1979-1990.
    19. Edouard Mien, 2022. "Impact of Oil Price and Oil Production on Inflation in the CEMAC," Post-Print hal-03818838, HAL.
    20. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    21. Elbahnasawy, Nasr G., 2020. "Democracy, political instability, and government tax effort in hydrocarbon-dependent countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    22. Shao, Shuai & Yang, Lili, 2014. "Natural resource dependence, human capital accumulation, and economic growth: A combined explanation for the resource curse and the resource blessing," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 632-642.
    23. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    24. Chygryn Olena & Lyulyov Oleksii & Pimonenko Tetyana & Mlaabdal Saad, 2020. "Efficiency of oil-production: the role of institutional factors," Engineering Management in Production and Services, Sciendo, vol. 12(4), pages 92-104, December.
    25. Eregha, P.B. & Mesagan, Ekundayo Peter, 2016. "Oil resource abundance, institutions and growth: Evidence from oil producing African countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 603-619.
    26. Wang, Kai-Hua & Su, Chi-Wei & Umar, Muhammad, 2021. "Geopolitical risk and crude oil security: A Chinese perspective," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    27. Liu, Zhen & Tang, Yuk Ming & Chau, Ka Yin & Chien, Fengsheng & Iqbal, Wasim & Sadiq, Muhammad, 2021. "Incorporating strategic petroleum reserve and welfare losses: A way forward for the policy development of crude oil resources in South Asia," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    28. Zakari, Abdulrasheed & Khan, Irfan & Tawiah, Vincent & Alvarado, Rafael & Li, Guo, 2022. "The production and consumption of oil in Africa: The environmental implications," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    29. Anca M. Cotet & Kevin K. Tsui, 2013. "Oil and Conflict: What Does the Cross Country Evidence Really Show?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(1), pages 49-80, January.
    30. Dutta, Anupam & Bouri, Elie & Roubaud, David, 2019. "Nonlinear relationships amongst the implied volatilities of crude oil and precious metals," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 473-478.
    31. Hoang, Thi Hong Van & Lahiani, Amine & Heller, David, 2016. "Is gold a hedge against inflation? New evidence from a nonlinear ARDL approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 54-66.
    32. Ahmed Atil & Kishwar Nawaz & Amine Lahiani & David Roubaud, 2020. "Are natural resources a blessing or a curse for financial development in Pakistan? The importance of oil prices, economic growth and economic globalization," Post-Print hal-03676031, HAL.
    33. Anindya Banerjee & Juan Dolado & Ricardo Mestre, 1998. "Error‐correction Mechanism Tests for Cointegration in a Single‐equation Framework," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 267-283, May.
    34. Edouard Mien, 2022. "Impact of Oil Price and Oil Production on Inflation in the CEMAC," Post-Print hal-03790291, HAL.
    35. Raad Al-Tal & Alaaeddin Al-Tarawneh, 2021. "The Impact of Government Effectiveness and Political Stability on Energy Consumption in the Selected MENA Economies," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(2), pages 1-6.
    36. Zhao, Zhengling & Sun, Shaolong & Sun, Jingyun & Wang, Shouyang, 2024. "A novel hybrid model with two-layer multivariate decomposition for crude oil price forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 288(C).
    37. Djimeu, Eric W. & Omgba, Luc Désiré, 2019. "Oil windfalls and export diversification in oil-producing countries: Evidence from oil booms," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 494-507.
    38. Khan, Naqib Ullah & Zhongyi, Peng & Ullah, Asad & Mumtaz, Muhammad, 2024. "A comprehensive evaluation of sustainable mineral resources governance in Pakistan: An analysis of challenges and reforms," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    39. McDonald, Lewis & Üngör, Murat, 2021. "New oil discoveries in Guyana since 2015: Resource curse or resource blessing," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    40. Liu, Fang & Chen, Houqun & Zhang, Shuwen, 2023. "Nexus among corruption, political instability and natural resources on economic recovery in Vietnam," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    41. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
    42. Merrill, Ryan K. & Orlando, Anthony W., 2020. "Oil at risk: Political violence and accelerated carbon extraction in the Middle East and North Africa," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    43. Das, Kirtiranjan & Sahoo, Manoranjan & Mohanty, Sarbeswar, 2024. "Asymmetric relationship between crude oil price and remittance inflows in a small island economy: Evidence from non-linear ARDL approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    44. Fateh Belaid & Ahmed H. Elsayed, 2019. "What drives renewable energy production in MENA Region? Investigating the roles of political stability, governance and financial sector," Working Papers 1322, Economic Research Forum, revised 21 Aug 2019.
    45. Eregha, Perekunah B. & Mesagan, Ekundayo P., 2020. "Oil resources, deficit financing and per capita GDP growth in selected oil-rich African nations: A dynamic heterogeneous panel approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    46. Matallah, Siham, 2022. "Rampant corruption: The dilemma facing economic diversification in oil-abundant MENA countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    47. Tunyo, Delali Aku, 2021. "Crude Oil Production And Macroeconomic Performance In Ghana," Working Papers 59a86590-2c12-4fa3-84fe-1, African Economic Research Consortium.
    48. Godfred Alufar Bokpin & Lord Mensah & Michael E. Asamoah, 2015. "Foreign direct investment and natural resources in Africa," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 42(4), pages 608-621, September.
    49. Matthias Basedau & Jann Lay, 2009. "Resource Curse or Rentier Peace? The Ambiguous Effects of Oil Wealth and Oil Dependence on Violent Conflict," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 46(6), pages 757-776, November.
    50. Thi Hong Van Hoang & Amine Lahiani & David Heller, 2016. "Is gold a hedge against inflation? New evidence from a nonlinear ARDL approach," Post-Print hal-02012307, HAL.
    51. Imtiaz, Amir & Javid, Snober, 2023. "Resource curse or blessings hypothesis in Pakistan: The role of financial development and oil prices in era of globalization," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(PA).
    52. Olanipekun, Ifedolapo Olabisi & Alola, Andrew Adewale, 2020. "Crude oil production in the Persian Gulf amidst geopolitical risk, cost of damage and resources rents: Is there asymmetric inference?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    53. Federico Carril-Caccia & Juliette Milgram-Baleix & Jordi Paniagua, 2019. "Foreign Direct Investment in oil-abundant countries: The role of institutions," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(4), pages 1-23, April.
    54. Andrés Mejía Acosta, 2013. "The Impact and Effectiveness of Accountability and Transparency Initiatives: The Governance of Natural Resources," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 31, pages 89-105, July.
    55. Wang, Xiaoying & Wang, Yawen & Ameen, Anam & Wang, Kai-Hua, 2024. "Navigating the resource curse: Unraveling the role of governance in regional development in China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    56. Mien, Edouard, 2022. "Impact of oil price and oil production on inflation in the CEMAC," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    57. Ewodo-Amougou, Marcel Rodrigue & Sapnken, Flavian Emmanuel & Mfetoum, Inoussah Moungnutou & Tamba, Jean Gaston, 2023. "Analysis of the relationship between oil rent and crude oil production in Cameroon: Evidence from ARDL and NARDL models," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    58. Anca M. Cotet & Kevin K. Tsui, 2013. "Oil, Growth, and Health: What Does the Cross-Country Evidence Really Show?," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 115(4), pages 1107-1137, October.
    59. Destek, Mehmet Akif & Adedoyin, Festus & Bekun, Festus Victor & Aydin, Sercan, 2023. "Converting a resource curse into a resource blessing: The function of institutional quality with different dimensions," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ben Youssef, Slim, 2025. "The relationships between political stability, arms imports, oil exports, and GHG emissions: a CS-DL approach for eight Gulf countries," MPRA Paper 124791, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ewodo-Amougou, Marcel Rodrigue & Sapnken, Flavian Emmanuel & Mfetoum, Inoussah Moungnutou & Tamba, Jean Gaston, 2023. "Analysis of the relationship between oil rent and crude oil production in Cameroon: Evidence from ARDL and NARDL models," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    2. Adeel Saleem & Maqbool H. Sial & Ahmed Raza Cheema, 2023. "Does an asymmetric nexus exist between exports and economic growth in Pakistan? Recent evidence from a nonlinear ARDL approach," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 297-326, February.
    3. Rangan Gupta & Amine Lahiani & Chi-Chuan Lee & Chien-Chiang Lee, 2019. "Asymmetric dynamics of insurance premium: the impacts of output and economic policy uncertainty," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(6), pages 1959-1978, December.
    4. Ali, Adnan & Ramakrishnan, Suresh & Faisal,, 2022. "Financial development and natural resources. Is there a stock market resource curse?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    5. Badeeb, Ramez Abubakr & Lean, Hooi Hooi & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2020. "Are too many natural resources to blame for the shape of the Environmental Kuznets Curve in resource-based economies?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    6. Leiva, Benjamin & Liu, Zhongyuan, 2019. "Energy and economic growth in the USA two decades later: Replication and reanalysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 89-99.
    7. Tang, Chor Foon & Tan, Eu Chye, 2013. "Exploring the nexus of electricity consumption, economic growth, energy prices and technology innovation in Malaysia," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 297-305.
    8. Md Shahiduzzaman & Allan Layton & Khorshed Alam, 2015. "On the contribution of information and communication technology to productivity growth in Australia," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 281-304, November.
    9. Orazaliyev Kanat & Zhijun Yan & Muhammad Mansoor Asghar & Syed Anees Haider Zaidi & Abdul Sami, 2024. "Gender Inequality and Poverty: The Role of Financial Development in Mitigating Poverty in Pakistan," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 15(3), pages 11848-11876, September.
    10. Md. Qamruzzaman, 2023. "Does Environmental Degradation-Led Remittances Flow? Nexus between Environmental Degradation, Uncertainty, Financial Inclusion and Remittances Inflows in India and China," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(2), pages 9-26, March.
    11. Balsalobre-Lorente, Daniel & Bekun, Festus Victor & Etokakpan, Mfonobong Udom & Driha, Oana M., 2019. "A road to enhancements in natural gas use in Iran: A multivariate modelling approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    12. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Hoang, Thi Hong Van & Mahalik, Mantu Kumar & Roubaud, David, 2017. "Energy consumption, financial development and economic growth in India: New evidence from a nonlinear and asymmetric analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 199-212.
    13. Olena STRYZHAK & Ramazan SAYAR & Yılmaz Onur ARI, 2022. "Geopolitical risks, GDP and tourism: an ARDL-ECM cointegration study on Ukraine," CES Working Papers, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 14(1), pages 85-113, May.
    14. Goh, Soo Khoon & McNown, Robert, 2015. "Examining the exchange rate regime–monetary policy autonomy nexus: Evidence from Malaysia," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 292-303.
    15. José Alves & João Quental Gonçalves, 2022. "How Money relates to value? An empirical examination on Gold, Silver and Bitcoin," Working Papers REM 2022/0222, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    16. Shreya Pal & Mantu Kumar Mahalik, 2025. "The Role of Real Exchange Rate in India’s Service Export: Do Remittances Inflows Matter in Post Liberalization-Era?," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 32(1), pages 19-39, March.
    17. Bruns, Stephan B. & Gross, Christian, 2013. "What if energy time series are not independent? Implications for energy-GDP causality analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 753-759.
    18. Muhammad Shahbaz & Hrushikesh Mallick & Mantu Kumar Mahalik & Shawkat Hammoudeh, 2018. "Is globalization detrimental to financial development? Further evidence from a very large emerging economy with significant orientation towards policies," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(6), pages 574-595, February.
    19. David Greasley & Les Oxley, 2010. "Cliometrics And Time Series Econometrics: Some Theory And Applications," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(5), pages 970-1042, December.
    20. Yongliang Zhang & Md. Qamruzzaman & Salma Karim & Ishrat Jahan, 2021. "Nexus between Economic Policy Uncertainty and Renewable Energy Consumption in BRIC Nations: The Mediating Role of Foreign Direct Investment and Financial Development," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-29, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:103:y:2025:i:c:s0301420725001059. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30467 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.