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Do refugee-immigrants affect international trade? Evidence from the world's largest refugee case

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  • Ghosh, Sucharita
  • Enami, Ali

Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of refugees on a developing host country's bilateral trade with the source country using a Vector Error Correction model and Granger causality tests. Using the largest case of refugee settlements in the world, we look at how refugees moving over several decades from Afghanistan to Pakistan have affected bilateral trade both directly and indirectly. We find that changes in Afghani refugees do not Granger cause movements in bilateral trade between Afghanistan and Pakistan but foreign aid to Afghanistan does Granger cause trade between the two countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Ghosh, Sucharita & Enami, Ali, 2015. "Do refugee-immigrants affect international trade? Evidence from the world's largest refugee case," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 291-307.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:37:y:2015:i:2:p:291-307
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2015.01.011
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    1. repec:eee:touman:v:63:y:2017:i:c:p:31-41 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Protracted refugees; International trade; Vector error correction; Developing countries; Causality;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration

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