“Holiday effect†in online product Returns: Evidence from negative expectation disconfirmation and post-purchase dissonance

Product returns pose significant challenges for online retailers, particularly during holiday seasons when shopping behaviors are influenced by heightened emotions and promotional incentives. This study examines the impact of holidays on consumers’ online product return intentions using a two-phase repeated online survey conducted before and after major holiday periods. It examined the role of negative expectation disconfirmation and post-purchase dissonance (including both cognitive and emotional dissonance) as key psychological mechanisms driving return intentions. The findings confirm that negative expectation disconfirmation and emotional dissonance significantly influence return intentions, with emotional dissonance playing a stronger role than cognitive dissonance. Additionally, holidays moderate the relationships between price, negative expectation disconfirmation, and return intentions, suggesting that consumer decision-making during holiday shopping differs from the non-holiday period. This research contributes to the literature on consumer post-purchase behavior by empirically validating a dual psychological mechanism underlying product returns and highlighting the nuanced effects of holidays. Managerial implications suggest that retailers should develop strategies to mitigate emotional dissonance during holidays.