Using a Grey model optimized by Differential Evolution algorithm to forecast the per capita annual net income of rural households in China
China is a major developing country where farmers account for over 57% of the population. Thus, promoting a rural economy is crucial if the Chinese government is to improve the quality of life of the nation as a whole. To frame scientific and effective rural policy or economic plans, it is useful and necessary for the government to predict the income of rural households. However, making such a prediction is challenging because rural households income is influenced by many factors, such as natural disasters. Based on the Grey Theory and the Differential Evolution (DE) algorithm, this study first developed a high-precision hybrid model, DE–GM(1,1) to forecast the per capita annual net income of rural households in China. By applying the DE algorithm to the optimization of the parameter λ, which was generally set equal to 0.5 in GM(1,1), we obtained more accurate forecasting results. Furthermore, the DE–Rolling–GM(1,1) was constructed by introducing the Rolling Mechanism. By analyzing the historical data of per capita annual net income of rural households in China from 1991 to 2008, we found that DE–Rolling–GM(1,1) can significantly improve the prediction precision when compared to traditional models.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 40 (2012)
Issue (Month): 5 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/375/description#description|
|Order Information:|| Postal: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/supportfaq.cws_home/regional|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Mahmoud, E & Motwani, J & Rice, G, 1990. "Forecasting US exports: An illustration using time series and econometric models," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 375-382.
- Min, Hokey & Jeung Ko, Hyun & Seong Ko, Chang, 2006. "A genetic algorithm approach to developing the multi-echelon reverse logistics network for product returns," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 56-69, January.
- Akay, Diyar & Atak, Mehmet, 2007. "Grey prediction with rolling mechanism for electricity demand forecasting of Turkey," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1670-1675.
- Yao, Ming-Jong & Chu, Weng-Ming, 2008. "A genetic algorithm for determining optimal replenishment cycles to minimize maximum warehouse space requirements," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 619-631, August.
- Udhayakumar, A. & Charles, V. & Kumar, Mukesh, 2011. "Stochastic simulation based genetic algorithm for chance constrained data envelopment analysis problems," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 387-397, August.
- Kumar, Ujjwal & Jain, V.K., 2010. "Time series models (Grey-Markov, Grey Model with rolling mechanism and singular spectrum analysis) to forecast energy consumption in India," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1709-1716.
- Parisi, Antonino & Parisi, Franco & Díaz, David, 2008. "Forecasting gold price changes: Rolling and recursive neural network models," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 477-487, December.
- Bergey, Paul K. & Ragsdale, Cliff, 2005. "Modified differential evolution: a greedy random strategy for genetic recombination," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 255-265, June.
- Zhou, P. & Ang, B.W. & Poh, K.L., 2006. "A trigonometric grey prediction approach to forecasting electricity demand," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 31(14), pages 2839-2847.
- Vallada, Eva & Ruiz, Rubén, 2010. "Genetic algorithms with path relinking for the minimum tardiness permutation flowshop problem," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 38(1-2), pages 57-67, February.
- Vroblefski, Mark & Brown, Evelyn C., 2006. "A grouping genetic algorithm for registration area planning," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 220-230, June.
- Chiang, W. -C. & Urban, T. L. & Baldridge, G. W., 1996. "A neural network approach to mutual fund net asset value forecasting," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 205-215, April.
- Jursa, René & Rohrig, Kurt, 2008. "Short-term wind power forecasting using evolutionary algorithms for the automated specification of artificial intelligence models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 694-709.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jomega:v:40:y:2012:i:5:p:525-532. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.