IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jomega/v24y1996i2p205-215.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A neural network approach to mutual fund net asset value forecasting

Author

Listed:
  • Chiang, W. -C.
  • Urban, T. L.
  • Baldridge, G. W.

Abstract

In this paper, an artificial neural network method is applied to forecast the end-of-year net asset value (NAV) of mutual funds. The back-propagation neural network is identified and explained. Historical economic information is used for the prediction of NAV data. The results of the forecasting are compared to those of traditional econometric techniques (i.e. linear and nonlinear regression analysis), and it is shown that neural networks significantly outperform regression models in situations with limited data availability.

Suggested Citation

  • Chiang, W. -C. & Urban, T. L. & Baldridge, G. W., 1996. "A neural network approach to mutual fund net asset value forecasting," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 205-215, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jomega:v:24:y:1996:i:2:p:205-215
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/0305-0483(95)00059-3
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hruschka, Harald, 1993. "Determining market response functions by neural network modeling: A comparison to econometric techniques," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 27-35, April.
    2. Kon, Stanley J, 1983. "The Market-Timing Performance of Mutual Fund Managers," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56(3), pages 323-347, July.
    3. Kon, Stanley J & Jen, Frank C, 1979. "The Investment Performance of Mutual Funds: An Empirical Investigation of Timing, Selectivity, and Market Efficiency," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 52(2), pages 263-289, April.
    4. Chang, Eric C & Lewellen, Wilbur G, 1984. "Market Timing and Mutual Fund Investment Performance," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 57(1), pages 57-72, January.
    5. Schmalensee, Richard, 1988. "Industrial Economics: An Overview," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 98(392), pages 643-681, September.
    6. Tam, KY, 1991. "Neural network models and the prediction of bank bankruptcy," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 429-445.
    7. Kar Yan Tam & Melody Y. Kiang, 1992. "Managerial Applications of Neural Networks: The Case of Bank Failure Predictions," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 38(7), pages 926-947, July.
    8. Carl R. Chen & Steve Stockum, 1986. "Selectivity, Market Timing, And Random Beta Behavior Of Mutual Funds: A Generalized Model," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 9(1), pages 87-96, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Romacho, Joao Carlos & Cortez, Maria Ceu, 2006. "Timing and selectivity in Portuguese mutual fund performance," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 348-368, September.
    2. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.
    3. Wattanatorn, Woraphon & Padungsaksawasdi, Chaiyuth & Chunhachinda, Pornchai & Nathaphan, Sarayut, 2020. "Mutual fund liquidity timing ability in the higher moment framework," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    4. Gruca, TS & Klemz, BR, 1998. "Using Neural Networks to Identify Competitive Market Structures from Aggregate Market Response Data," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 49-62, February.
    5. Carl R. Chen & Steve Stockum, 1986. "Selectivity, Market Timing, And Random Beta Behavior Of Mutual Funds: A Generalized Model," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 9(1), pages 87-96, March.
    6. Kathryn A. Holmes & Robert W. Faff, 2004. "Stability, Asymmetry and Seasonality of Fund Performance: An Analysis of Australian Multi‐sector Managed Funds," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(3‐4), pages 539-578, April.
    7. Kathryn A. Holmes & Robert W. Faff, 2004. "Stability, Asymmetry and Seasonality of Fund Performance: An Analysis of Australian Multi‐sector Managed Funds," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(3‐4), pages 539-578, April.
    8. Pankaj K. Agarwal & H. K. Pradhan, 2018. "Mutual Fund Performance Using Unconditional Multifactor Models: Evidence from India," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 17(2_suppl), pages 157-184, August.
    9. Kee-Hong Bae & Junesuh Yi, 2008. "The Impact of the Short-Short Rule Repeal on the Timing Ability of Mutual Funds," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(7-8), pages 969-997.
    10. Brahmadev Panda & Rudra Prasanna Mahapatra & Samson Moharana, 2015. "Myth of Equity Mutual Fund Performance," Vision, , vol. 19(3), pages 200-209, September.
    11. D. K. Malhotra & Robert W. McLeod, 1997. "An Empirical Analysis Of Mutual Fund Expenses," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 20(2), pages 175-190, June.
    12. Sanjeev Prashar & Harvinder Singh & Chandan Parsad & T. Sai Vijay, 2017. "Predicting Indian Shoppers’ Malls Loyalty Behaviour," Vikalpa: The Journal for Decision Makers, , vol. 42(4), pages 234-250, December.
    13. Callen, Jeffrey L. & Kwan, Clarence C. Y. & Yip, Patrick C. Y. & Yuan, Yufei, 1996. "Neural network forecasting of quarterly accounting earnings," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 475-482, December.
    14. Seyma Caliskan Cavdar & Alev Dilek Aydin, 2015. "An Empirical Analysis for the Prediction of a Financial Crisis in Turkey through the Use of Forecast Error Measures," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 8(3), pages 1-18, August.
    15. Akshatha Suvarna, 2022. "Timing and Selectivity Performance of Mutual Fund Managers: Application of Conditional Models to Indian Equity Diversified Mutual funds," Jindal Journal of Business Research, , vol. 11(1), pages 81-98, June.
    16. Karen L. Benson & David R. Gallagher & Patrick Teodorowski, 2007. "Momentum investing and the asset allocation decision," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 47(4), pages 571-598, December.
    17. Jiang, George J. & Yao, Tong & Yu, Tong, 2007. "Do mutual funds time the market? Evidence from portfolio holdings," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(3), pages 724-758, December.
    18. Tarun K. Sen & Andrew M. Gibbs, 1994. "An Evaluation of the Corporate Takeover Model Using Neural Networks," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 3(4), pages 279-292, December.
    19. Ed Edwards & Ajay Samant, 2003. "Investing with a Conscience: An Evaluation of the Risk-Adjusted Performance of Socially Responsible Mutual Funds," American Journal of Business, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 18(1), pages 51-60.
    20. fernández, María t. Tascón & gutiérrez, Francisco J. Castaño, 2012. "Variables y Modelos Para La Identificación y Predicción Del Fracaso Empresarial: Revisión de La Investigación Empírica Reciente," Revista de Contabilidad - Spanish Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 7-58.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jomega:v:24:y:1996:i:2:p:205-215. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/375/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.