IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/joecag/v6y2015icp5-12.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Frailty, mortality, and the demand for medical care

Author

Listed:
  • Strulik, Holger

Abstract

This paper proposes a theory of aging and longevity according to which the probability to survive at any age depends on the number of health deficits accumulated, as suggested by modern biology. I calibrate the model for a reference U.S. citizen and exploit the fact that the association between health deficits and mortality has been estimated with great precision in gerontology. This allows me to use the model for quantitative experiments. I compare health expenditure, health deficits, and the value of life for richer and poorer individuals. The model motivates a strong socioeconomic gradient of health. It explains how income growth and advances in medical technology and the induced increase in health care demand led to large reductions in health deficits and roughly a doubling of the value of life at all ages.

Suggested Citation

  • Strulik, Holger, 2015. "Frailty, mortality, and the demand for medical care," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 6(C), pages 5-12.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:joecag:v:6:y:2015:i:c:p:5-12
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2015.09.001
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212828X15000225
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dora L. Costa & Matthew E. Kahn, 2004. "Changes in the Value of Life, 1940--1980," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 159-180, September.
    2. Chang, Fwu-Ranq, 1996. "Uncertainty and investment in health," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 369-376, June.
    3. Brunner, Martin & Strulik, Holger, 2002. "Solution of perfect foresight saddlepoint problems: a simple method and applications," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 737-753, May.
    4. dʼAlbis, Hippolyte & Lau, Sau-Him Paul & Sánchez-Romero, Miguel, 2012. "Mortality transition and differential incentives for early retirement," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 147(1), pages 261-283.
    5. Cropper, M L, 1977. "Health, Investment in Health, and Occupational Choice," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(6), pages 1273-1294, December.
    6. Kenneth G. Manton & XiLiang Gu & Vicki L. Lamb, 2006. "Long‐Term Trends in Life Expectancy and Active Life Expectancy in the United States," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 32(1), pages 81-105, March.
    7. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Michael Moore, 2014. "Optimal Retirement with Increasing Longevity," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 116(3), pages 838-858, July.
    8. Selden, Thomas M., 1993. "Uncertainty and health care spending by the poor: The health capital model revisited," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 109-115, April.
    9. Robert E. Hall & Charles I. Jones, 2007. "The Value of Life and the Rise in Health Spending," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 122(1), pages 39-72.
    10. Kuhn, Michael & Wrzaczek, Stefan & Prskawetz, Alexia & Feichtinger, Gustav, 2015. "Optimal choice of health and retirement in a life-cycle model," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 158(PA), pages 186-212.
    11. Holger Strulik & Sebastian Vollmer, 2013. "Long-run trends of human aging and longevity," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(4), pages 1303-1323, October.
    12. Carl-Johan Dalgaard & Holger Strulik, 2017. "The Genesis of the Golden Age: Accounting for the Rise in Health and Leisure," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 24, pages 132-151, March.
    13. Picone, Gabriel & Uribe, Martin & Mark Wilson, R., 1998. "The effect of uncertainty on the demand for medical care, health capital and wealth," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 171-185, April.
    14. Isaac Ehrlich & Yong Yin, 2005. "Explaining Diversities in Age-Specific Life Expectancies and Values of Life Saving: A Numerical Analysis," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 129-162, September.
    15. Strulik, Holger, 2011. "Health and Education: Understanding the Gradient," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-487, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    16. Ben J. Heijdra & Ward E. Romp, 2008. "A life-cycle overlapping-generations model of the small open economy," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 60(1), pages 88-121, January.
    17. repec:cup:jdemec:v:81:y:2015:i:03:p:301-316_00 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Holger STRULIK, 2015. "A Closed-form Solution for the Health Capital Model," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 81(3), pages 301-316, September.
    19. Wagstaff, Adam, 1986. "The demand for health : Some new empirical evidence," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 195-233, September.
    20. Ehrlich, Isaac & Chuma, Hiroyuki, 1990. "A Model of the Demand for Longevity and the Value of Life Extension," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(4), pages 761-782, August.
    21. Carl-Johan Dalgaard & Holger Strulik, 2014. "Optimal Aging And Death: Understanding The Preston Curve," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 12(3), pages 672-701, June.
    22. Holger Strulik & Katharina Werner, 2016. "50 is the new 30—long-run trends of schooling and retirement explained by human aging," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 165-187, June.
    23. Liljas, Bengt, 1998. "The demand for health with uncertainty and insurance," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 153-170, April.
    24. Grossman, Michael, 1972. "On the Concept of Health Capital and the Demand for Health," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 80(2), pages 223-255, March-Apr.
    25. John Bongaarts, 2005. "Long-range trends in adult mortality: Models and projection methods," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 42(1), pages 23-49, February.
    26. Grossman, Michael, 2000. "The human capital model," Handbook of Health Economics,in: A. J. Culyer & J. P. Newhouse (ed.), Handbook of Health Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 7, pages 347-408 Elsevier.
    27. Audrey Laporte & Brian Ferguson, 2007. "Investment in health when health is stochastic," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 20(2), pages 423-444, April.
    28. Heijdra, Ben J. & Romp, Ward E., 2009. "Retirement, pensions, and ageing," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(3-4), pages 586-604, April.
    29. Kevin M. Murphy & Robert H. Topel, 2006. "The Value of Health and Longevity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 114(5), pages 871-904, October.
    30. repec:dau:papers:123456789/6825 is not listed on IDEAS
    31. Dardanoni, Valentino & Wagstaff, Adam, 1987. "Uncertainty, inequalities in health and the demand for health," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 283-290, December.
    32. Ehrlich, Isaac, 2000. "Uncertain lifetime, life protection, and the value of life saving," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 341-367, May.
    33. Muurinen, Jaana-Marja, 1982. "Demand for health: A generalised Grossman model," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 5-28, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Schünemann, Johannes & Strulik, Holger & Trimborn, Timo, 2017. "The gender gap in mortality: How much is explained by behavior?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 79-90.
    2. repec:eee:joepsy:v:69:y:2018:i:c:p:44-57 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Trimborn, Timo & Schünemann, Johannes & Strulik, Holger, 2016. "Disentangling the Gender Gap in Longevity," Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145570, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    4. Strulik, Holger, 2018. "Smoking kills: An economic theory of addiction, health deficit accumulation, and longevity," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 1-12.
    5. Schünemann, Johannes & Strulik, Holger & Trimborn, Timo, 2017. "Going from bad to worse: Adaptation to poor health health spending, longevity, and the value of life," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 130-146.
    6. Jiunn Wang & Laura Marsiliani & Thomas Renstrom, 2017. "Tax Reform, Unhealthy Commodities and Endogenous Health," Working Papers 2017_12, Durham University Business School.
    7. Carl-Johan Dalgaard & Holger Strulik, 2017. "The Genesis of the Golden Age: Accounting for the Rise in Health and Leisure," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 24, pages 132-151, March.
    8. Strulik, Holger & Trimborn, Timo, 2018. "Hyperbolic discounting can be good for your health," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 44-57.
    9. Schünemann, Johannes & Strulik, Holger & Trimborn, Timo, 2019. "Anticipation of deteriorating health and information avoidance," Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers 365, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    10. Johannes Schuenemann & Holger Strulik & Timo Trimborn, . "The Marriage Gap: Optimal Aging and Death in Partnerships," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics.
    11. Dalgaard, Carl-Johan & Hansen, Casper Worm & Strulik, Holger, 2018. "Physiological Aging around the World and Economic Growth," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 375, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    12. Jochen Hartwig & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2018. "Testing the Grossman model of medical spending determinants with macroeconomic panel data," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 19(8), pages 1067-1086, November.
    13. repec:eee:jeborg:v:158:y:2019:i:c:p:269-287 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Strulik, Holger, 2018. "I shouldn't eat this donut: Self-control, body weight, and health in a life cycle model," Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers 360, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    15. Strulik, Holger, 2018. "The return to education in terms of wealth and health," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 12(C), pages 1-14.
    16. Carl-Johan Dalgaard & Casper Worm Hansen & Holger Strulik, 2017. "Accounting for Fetal Origins: Health Capital vs. Health Deficits," Discussion Papers 17-11, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    17. Strulik, Holger, 2019. "An economic theory of depression and its impact on health behavior and longevity," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 269-287.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Aging; Longevity; Health; Savings; Value of life;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:joecag:v:6:y:2015:i:c:p:5-12. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/the-journal-of-the-economics-of-ageing .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.