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Can a conditional cash transfer reduce teen fertility? The case of Brazil’s Bolsa Familia

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  • Olson, Zachary
  • Clark, Rachel Gardner
  • Reynolds, Sarah Anne

Abstract

In 2008, Brazil's conditional cash transfer program expanded to cover a wider range of ages. Poor families are now given stipends for their children's school attendance up to age seventeen, whereas prior the maximum age was fifteen. Using a nationally representative household survey, we estimate the impact of this policy on teen fertility with a triple difference analysis on the fertility outcomes of treated cohorts vs. non-treated cohorts based on income eligibility, age eligibility, and timing of program implementation. We find a three percentage point drop in fertility among eligible teens within five years of program implementation. This offsets the difference in fertility between poor and non-poor teens. The impact is concentrated in urban areas, with no program effects found in rural areas. We are able to replicate these findings using National Birth Registry Data.

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  • Olson, Zachary & Clark, Rachel Gardner & Reynolds, Sarah Anne, 2019. "Can a conditional cash transfer reduce teen fertility? The case of Brazil’s Bolsa Familia," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 128-144.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jhecon:v:63:y:2019:i:c:p:128-144
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jhealeco.2018.10.006
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Reynolds, Sarah Anne, 2015. "Brazil's Bolsa Familia: Does it work for adolescents and do they work less for it?," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 23-38.
    2. Cortés Darwin & Gallego Juan & Maldonado Darío, 2016. "On the Design of Educational Conditional Cash Transfer Programs and Their Impact on Non-Education Outcomes: The Case of Teenage Pregnancy," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 16(1), pages 219-258, January.
    3. Guy Stecklov & Paul Winters & Jessica Todd & Ferdinando Regalia, 2006. "Demographic Externalities from Poverty Programs in Developing Countries: Experimental Evidence from Latin America," Working Papers 2006-01, American University, Department of Economics.
    4. Sarah Baird & Ephraim Chirwa & Craig McIntosh & Berk Özler, 2010. "The short‐term impacts of a schooling conditional cash transfer program on the sexual behavior of young women," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(S1), pages 55-68, September.
    5. David Lam & Suzanne Duryea, 1999. "Effects of Schooling on Fertility, Labor Supply, and Investments in Children, with Evidence from Brazil," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 34(1), pages 160-192.
    6. World Bank, 2017. "World Development Indicators 2017," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 26447.
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    Cited by:

    1. Superti, Luiz Henrique, 2019. "Effects on Fertility of The Brazilian Cash Transfer Program: Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity Approach," MPRA Paper 104627, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Oct 2020.

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