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How do we age? A decomposition of Gompertz law

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  • Hansen, Casper Worm
  • Strulik, Holger

Abstract

A strong regularity of human life is Gompertz’s law, which predicts a near-perfect exponential increase in mortality with age. In this paper, we take into account that chronological age is not a cause of death and decompose Gompertz’s law into two equally strong laws: (i) an exponential increase in health deficits as measured by the frailty index, and (ii) a power law association between the frailty index and the mortality rate. We show how the increase in the frailty index can be derived from the feature of self-productivity of health deficits. We explore the robustness of the Gompertz decomposition across countries, sex, and over time and show how information about mortality rates can be used to infer the state of health of an age-structured population. Finally, we use this method to infer the biological ages of past populations, such as Australians in 1940 and Swedes in 1770.

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  • Hansen, Casper Worm & Strulik, Holger, 2025. "How do we age? A decomposition of Gompertz law," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jhecon:v:101:y:2025:i:c:s0167629625000220
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jhealeco.2025.102988
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    2. Astrid Krenz & Holger Strulik, 2025. "Male excess mortality during the epidemiological transition: theory and evidence from India," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 38(4), pages 1-26, December.

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    JEL classification:

    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General
    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General
    • N30 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - General, International, or Comparative

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