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A Unifying Theory of Aging and Mortality

Author

Listed:
  • Valentin Flietner

    (PwC and Tinbergen Institute)

  • Bernd Heidergott

    (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam and Tinbergen Institute)

  • Frank den Hollander

    (Leiden University)

  • Ines Lindner

    (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam and Tinbergen Institute)

  • Azadeh Parvaneh

    (Leiden University)

  • Holger Strulik

    (University of Göttingen)

Abstract

In this paper, we advance the network theory of aging and mortality by developing a causal mathematical model for the mortality rate. First, we show that in large networks, where health deficits accumulate at nodes representing health indicators, the modeling of network evolution with Poisson processes is universal and can be derived from fundamental principles. Second, with the help of two simplifying approximations, which we refer to as mean-field assumption and homogeneity assumption, we provide an analytical derivation of Gompertz law under generic and biologically relevant conditions. We identify the parameters in Gompertz law as a function of the parameters driving the evolution of the network, and illustrate our computations with simulations and analytic approximations.

Suggested Citation

  • Valentin Flietner & Bernd Heidergott & Frank den Hollander & Ines Lindner & Azadeh Parvaneh & Holger Strulik, 2024. "A Unifying Theory of Aging and Mortality," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 24-079/II, Tinbergen Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:tin:wpaper:20240079
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Holger Strulik & Sebastian Vollmer, 2013. "Long-run trends of human aging and longevity," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(4), pages 1303-1323, October.
    2. Carl‐Johan Dalgaard & Casper Worm Hansen & Holger Strulik, 2021. "Fetal origins—A life cycle model of health and aging from conception to death," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(6), pages 1276-1290, June.
    3. S. Olshansky & Bruce Carnes, 1997. "Ever since gompertz," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 34(1), pages 1-15, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hansen, Casper Worm & Strulik, Holger, 2025. "How do we age? A decomposition of Gompertz law," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General
    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General

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