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Does agricultural trade liberalization increase risks of supply-side uncertainty?: Effects of productivity shocks and export restrictions on welfare and food supply in Japan

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  • Tanaka, Tetsuji
  • Hosoe, Nobuhiro

Abstract

Agriculture is the focus of much contention in free trade negotiations. The Japanese government is against liberalizing the rice trade on the grounds that it would threaten "national food security" in the events of such shocks as crop failure and embargoes. Trade liberalization is expected to make the Japanese economy more dependent upon food imports and, thus, more susceptible to these risks. Using a computable general equilibrium model with a Monte Carlo simulation, we quantify the welfare impacts of productivity shocks and export quotas by major rice exporters to Japan and found little evidence of Japan suffering from such shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Tanaka, Tetsuji & Hosoe, Nobuhiro, 2011. "Does agricultural trade liberalization increase risks of supply-side uncertainty?: Effects of productivity shocks and export restrictions on welfare and food supply in Japan," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 368-377, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfpoli:v:36:y:2011:i:3:p:368-377
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gail L. Cramer & James M. Hansen & Eric J. Wailes, 1999. "Impact of Rice Tariffication on Japan and the World Rice Market," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 81(5), pages 1149-1156.
    2. Devaragan, Shantayanan & Lewis, Jeffrey D. & Robinson, Sherman, 1990. "Policy lessons from trade-focused, two-sector models," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 625-657.
    3. Nobuhiro Hosoe, 2004. "Crop failure, price regulation, and emergency imports of Japan's rice sector in 1993," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(10), pages 1051-1056.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Hosoe, Nobuhiro, 2016. "The double dividend of agricultural trade liberalization: Consistency between national food security and gains from trade," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 27-36.
    2. Rutten, Martine & Shutes, Lindsay & Meijerink, Gerdien, 2013. "Sit down at the ball game: How trade barriers make the world less food secure," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 1-10.
    3. Lee, Youngjae & Kennedy, P. Lynn, 2016. "Analyzing Collective Trade Policy Actions In Response To Cyclical Risk In Agricultural Productivity," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, 2016, Boston, Massachusetts 242361, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    4. Karapinar, Baris & Tanaka, Tetsuji, 2013. "How to Improve World Food Supply Stability Under Future Uncertainty: Potential Role of WTO Regulation on Export Restrictions in Rice," 135th Seminar, August 28-30, 2013, Belgrade, Serbia 160387, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    5. Mariano, Marc Jim M. & Giesecke, James A., 2014. "The macroeconomic and food security implications of price interventions in the Philippine rice market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 350-361.
    6. Lee, Youngjae & Kennedy, Lynn, 2016. "Analyzing Collective Trade Policy Actions in Response to Cyclical Risk in Agricultural Production: The Case of International Wheat," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, 2016, Boston, Massachusetts 235430, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    7. Marc Jim M. Mariano & James A. Giesecke & Nhi H. Tran, 2015. "The effects of domestic rice market interventions outside business-as-usual conditions for imported rice prices," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(8), pages 809-832, February.
    8. John, Adam, 2013. "Price relations between export and domestic rice markets in Thailand," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 48-57.
    9. Sartori, Martina & Schiavo, Stefano, 2015. "Connected we stand: A network perspective on trade and global food security," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 114-127.
    10. Byeong-il, Ahn & Younghyeon, Jeon, 2016. "Does tariff reduction have a positive effect on the world’s grain self-sufficiency?," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, 2016, Boston, Massachusetts 235578, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    11. Tetsuji Tanaka & Nobuhiro Hosoe, 2011. "What Drove the Crop Price Hikes in the Food Crisis?," GRIPS Discussion Papers 11-16, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.

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