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Productivity Shocks and National Food Security for Japan


  • TANAKA Tetsuji
  • HOSOE Nobuhiro


Agriculture is the focus of much contention in free trade negotiations. The Japanese government is against liberalizing the rice trade on the grounds that it would threaten "national food security" in the events of such shocks as crop failure, war, and embargo. Trade liberalization is expected to make Japan more dependent upon food imports and to make the Japanese economy more susceptible to these risks. Using a stochastic computable general equilibrium model, we conducted Monte Carlo simulations to quantify impact of rice productivity shocks and export quotas by major rice exporters to Japan and found little chance for trade liberalization for Japan to suffer from such shocks.

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  • TANAKA Tetsuji & HOSOE Nobuhiro, 2009. "Productivity Shocks and National Food Security for Japan," Discussion papers 09004, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
  • Handle: RePEc:eti:dpaper:09004

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. M. Ataman Aksoy & John C. Beghin, 2005. "Global Agricultural Trade and Developing Countries," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 7464, June.
    2. Gail L. Cramer & James M. Hansen & Eric J. Wailes, 1999. "Impact of Rice Tariffication on Japan and the World Rice Market," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 81(5), pages 1149-1156.
    3. Yujiro Hayami & Yoshihisa Godo, 1997. "Economics and Politics of Rice Policy in Japan: A Perspective on the Uruguay Round," NBER Chapters,in: Regionalism versus Multilateral Trade Arrangements, NBER-EASE Volume 6, pages 371-404 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Devaragan, Shantayanan & Lewis, Jeffrey D. & Robinson, Sherman, 1990. "Policy lessons from trade-focused, two-sector models," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 625-657.
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