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Intertemporal equilibria with Knightian uncertainty

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  • Dana, Rose-Anne
  • Riedel, Frank

Abstract

We study a dynamic and infinite-dimensional model with incomplete multiple prior preferences. In interior efficient allocations, agents share a common risk-adjusted prior and subjective interest rate. Interior efficient allocations and equilibria coincide with those of economies with subjective expected utility and priors from the agentsʼ multiple prior sets. A specific model with neither risk nor uncertainty at the aggregate level is considered. Risk is always fully insured. For small levels of ambiguity, there exists an equilibrium with inertia where agents also insure fully against Knightian uncertainty. When the level of ambiguity exceeds a critical threshold, full insurance no longer prevails and there exist equilibria with inertia where agents do not insure against uncertainty at all. We also show that equilibria with inertia are indeterminate.

Suggested Citation

  • Dana, Rose-Anne & Riedel, Frank, 2013. "Intertemporal equilibria with Knightian uncertainty," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 148(4), pages 1582-1605.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jetheo:v:148:y:2013:i:4:p:1582-1605 DOI: 10.1016/j.jet.2013.04.005
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Frank Riedel, 2009. "Optimal Stopping With Multiple Priors," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(3), pages 857-908, May.
    2. Itzhak Gilboa & Fabio Maccheroni & Massimo Marinacci & David Schmeidler, 2010. "Objective and Subjective Rationality in a Multiple Prior Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, pages 755-770.
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    4. Nehring, Klaus, 2009. "Imprecise probabilistic beliefs as a context for decision-making under ambiguity," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 144(3), pages 1054-1091, May.
    5. Fabio Maccheroni & Massimo Marinacci & Aldo Rustichini, 2006. "Ambiguity Aversion, Robustness, and the Variational Representation of Preferences," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(6), pages 1447-1498, November.
    6. Zengjing Chen & Larry Epstein, 2002. "Ambiguity, Risk, and Asset Returns in Continuous Time," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(4), pages 1403-1443, July.
    7. Epstein, Larry G. & Schneider, Martin, 2003. "Recursive multiple-priors," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 113(1), pages 1-31, November.
    8. Easley, David & O'Hara, Maureen, 2010. "Liquidity and valuation in an uncertain world," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 1-11, July.
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    10. Efe A. Ok & Pietro Ortoleva & Gil Riella, 2012. "Incomplete Preferences Under Uncertainty: Indecisiveness in Beliefs versus Tastes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(4), pages 1791-1808, July.
    11. Luca Rigotti & Chris Shannon, 2005. "Uncertainty and Risk in Financial Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, pages 203-243.
    12. Nascimento, Leandro & Riella, Gil, 2011. "A class of incomplete and ambiguity averse preferences," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 728-750, March.
    13. Faro, José Heleno, 2015. "Variational Bewley preferences," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 699-729.
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    15. Epstein, Larry G. & Marinacci, Massimo, 2007. "Mutual absolute continuity of multiple priors," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 137(1), pages 716-720, November.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. R.A Dana & C. Le Van, 2014. "Efficient allocations and Equilibria with short," Working Papers 2014-61, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    2. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-061 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Beißner, Patrick, 2016. "Radner Equilibria under Ambiguous Volatility," Center for Mathematical Economics Working Papers 493, Center for Mathematical Economics, Bielefeld University.
    4. repec:hal:journl:halshs-01020646 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. repec:ipg:wpaper:201420 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Dana, R.A. & Le Van, C., 2014. "Efficient allocations and equilibria with short-selling and incomplete preferences," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 101-105.
    7. repec:spr:joecth:v:64:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s00199-016-0979-y is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Wei Ma, 2016. "Pareto Optimality and Indeterminacy of General Equilibrium under Knightian Uncertainty," Working Papers 201621, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    9. Carlier, G. & Dana, R.-A., 2013. "Pareto optima and equilibria when preferences are incompletely known," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 148(4), pages 1606-1623.
    10. Tian, Dejian & Tian, Weidong, 2014. "Optimal risk-sharing under mutually singular beliefs," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 41-49.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Knightian uncertainty; Ambiguity; Incomplete preferences; General equilibrium theory; No trade; Dynamic general equilibrium;

    JEL classification:

    • D51 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Exchange and Production Economies
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making

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