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Large deviations and multinomial probit choice

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  • Dokumacı, Emin
  • Sandholm, William H.

Abstract

We consider a discrete choice model in which the payoffs to each of an agentʼs n actions are subjected to the average of m i.i.d. shocks, and use tools from large deviations theory to characterize the rate of decay of the probability of choosing a given suboptimal action as m approaches infinity. Our model includes the multinomial probit model of Myatt and Wallace (2003) [5] as a special case. We show that their formula describing the rates of decay of choice probabilities is incorrect, provide the correct formula, and use our large deviations analysis to provide intuition for the difference between the two.

Suggested Citation

  • Dokumacı, Emin & Sandholm, William H., 2011. "Large deviations and multinomial probit choice," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 146(5), pages 2151-2158.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jetheo:v:146:y:2011:i:5:p:2151-2158
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jet.2011.06.013
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Myatt, David P. & Wallace, Chris, 2003. "A multinomial probit model of stochastic evolution," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 113(2), pages 286-301, December.
    2. Kandori, Michihiro & Mailath, George J & Rob, Rafael, 1993. "Learning, Mutation, and Long Run Equilibria in Games," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(1), pages 29-56, January.
    3. Blume Lawrence E., 1993. "The Statistical Mechanics of Strategic Interaction," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 387-424, July.
    4. Young, H Peyton, 1993. "The Evolution of Conventions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(1), pages 57-84, January.
    5. O. L. Mangasarian & J. B. Rosen, 1964. "Inequalities for Stochastic Nonlinear Programming Problems," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 12(1), pages 143-154, February.
    6. P. Young, 1999. "The Evolution of Conventions," Levine's Working Paper Archive 485, David K. Levine.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Arigapudi, Srinivas, 2020. "Exit from equilibrium in coordination games under probit choice," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 168-202.
    2. Sawa, Ryoji, 2021. "A stochastic stability analysis with observation errors in normal form games," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 570-589.
    3. Newton, Jonathan & Sawa, Ryoji, 2015. "A one-shot deviation principle for stability in matching problems," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 1-27.
    4. Roberto Rozzi, 2021. "Competing Conventions with Costly Information Acquisition," Games, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-29, June.
    5. Arigapudi, Srinivas, 2024. "Transitions between equilibria in Bilingual Games under Probit Choice," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    6. Sawa, Ryoji & Wu, Jiabin, 2018. "Reference-dependent preferences, super-dominance and stochastic stability," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 96-104.
    7. Klaus, Bettina & Newton, Jonathan, 2016. "Stochastic stability in assignment problems," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 62-74.
    8. Sandholm, William H. & Staudigl, Mathias, 2016. "Large Deviations and Stochastic Stability in the Small Noise Double Limit, I: Theory," Center for Mathematical Economics Working Papers 505, Center for Mathematical Economics, Bielefeld University.
    9. Hwang, Sung-Ha & Rey-Bellet, Luc, 2021. "Positive feedback in coordination games: Stochastic evolutionary dynamics and the logit choice rule," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 355-373.
    10. Jonathan Newton, 2018. "Evolutionary Game Theory: A Renaissance," Games, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-67, May.
    11. Sandholm, William H. & Staudigl, Mathias, 2016. "Large Deviations and Stochastic Stability in the Small Noise Double Limit, II: The Logit Model," Center for Mathematical Economics Working Papers 506, Center for Mathematical Economics, Bielefeld University.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Discrete choice theory; Large deviations theory; Multinomial probit model; Stochastic evolutionary game theory; Stochastic stability;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • C73 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Stochastic and Dynamic Games; Evolutionary Games

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