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Market equilibrium and welfare effects of a fuel tax in China: The impact of consumers' response through driving patterns

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  • Tan, Jijun
  • Xiao, Junji
  • Zhou, Xiaolan

Abstract

We investigate the market equilibrium and welfare effects of a fuel tax in China relative to an alternative policy instrument that rations the number of new automobile sales through auctioned quotas. Unlike those of previous studies, our modeling approach incorporates both household car purchase and utilization decisions, the latter of which have been ignored in previous studies on China's fuel tax. Ignoring this margin of choice will underestimate the fuel tax's ability to mitigate externalities. Using detailed household-level panel data and a fixed effects econometric specification, we estimate the fuel price elasticity of vehicle miles traveled is −0.59 on average. The results of the counterfactual analysis suggest that a 51% increase in tax-inclusive gasoline prices will reduce car sales by 24.9% but increase social welfare to a degree that depends on vehicles' lifetime. We find that compared to auctioned quotas, the fuel tax results in greater car sales but higher social welfare.

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  • Tan, Jijun & Xiao, Junji & Zhou, Xiaolan, 2019. "Market equilibrium and welfare effects of a fuel tax in China: The impact of consumers' response through driving patterns," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 20-43.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jeeman:v:93:y:2019:i:c:p:20-43
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2018.10.006
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    Cited by:

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    5. Ji, Qing & Wang, Chunan & Fan, Ying, 2022. "Environmental and welfare effects of vehicle purchase tax: Evidence from China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    6. Prateek Bansal & Rubal Dua, 2022. "Fuel consumption elasticities, rebound effect and feebate effectiveness in the Indian and Chinese new car markets," Papers 2201.08995, arXiv.org.
    7. Jiang, Hong-Dian & Liu, Li-Jing & Dong, Kangyin & Fu, Yu-Wei, 2022. "How will sectoral coverage in the carbon trading system affect the total oil consumption in China? A CGE-based analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    8. Tatsuya Abe, 2022. "Welfare Effects of Fuel Tax and Feebate Policies in the Japanese New Car Market," Working Papers e172, Tokyo Center for Economic Research.
    9. Hu, Mantian & Xiao, Junji & Zheng, Bingyong, 2022. "The selection effect of quota rationing mechanisms on sales distribution: The convergence of auction and lottery," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 803-819.
    10. Xu, Lei & Chen, Jingrui & Qu, Fang & Wang, Jue & Lu, Yi, 2022. "Queuing to refuel before price rise in China: How do gasoline price changes affect consumer responses and behaviours?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 253(C).
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fuel tax; China automobile market; Welfare analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q51 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Valuation of Environmental Effects
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy
    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies

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