Three parts natural, seven parts man-made: Bayesian analysis of China's Great Leap Forward demographic disaster
The millions of deaths that occurred during China's great famine of 1959-1961 were the result of one of the world's greatest civil demographic disasters. Two primary hypotheses have been advanced to explain the famine. One is that China experienced three consecutive years of bad weather while the other is that national policies were wrong in that they reduced and misallocated agricultural production. The relative importance of these two factors to the famine remains controversial among China scholars. This paper uses provincial-level demographic panel data and a Bayesian empirical approach in an effort to distinguish the relative importance of weather and national policy on China's great demographic disaster. Consistent with the qualitative literature in this area, we find that national policy played an overall more important role in the famine than weather. However, we provide new quantitative evidence that weather was also an important factor, particularly in those provinces that experienced excessively wet conditions.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Daniel Houser & Michael Keane & Kevin McCabe, 2004.
"Behavior in a Dynamic Decision Problem: An Analysis of Experimental Evidence Using a Bayesian Type Classification Algorithm,"
Econometric Society, vol. 72(3), pages 781-822, 05.
- Daniel Houser & Michael Keane & Kevin McCabe, 2002. "Behavior in a dynamic decision problem: An analysis of experimental evidence using a bayesian type classification algorithm," Experimental 0211001, EconWPA.
- Chib, Siddhartha & Greenberg, Edward, 1996. "Markov Chain Monte Carlo Simulation Methods in Econometrics," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(03), pages 409-431, August.
- Siddhartha Chib & Edward Greenberg, 1994. "Markov Chain Monte Carlo Simulation Methods in Econometrics," Econometrics 9408001, EconWPA, revised 23 Feb 1995.
- Houser, Daniel & Bechara, Antoine & Keane, Michael & McCabe, Kevin & Smith, Vernon, 2005. "Identifying individual differences: An algorithm with application to Phineas Gage," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 373-385, August.
- Houser, Daniel, 2003. "Bayesian analysis of a dynamic stochastic model of labor supply and saving," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 113(2), pages 289-335, April. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)