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Kalman filtering with truncated normal state variables for Bayesian estimation of macroeconomic models

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  • Michael J. Dueker

Abstract

A pair of simple modifications-in the forecast error and forecast error variance-to the Kalman filter recursions makes possible the filtering of models in which one or more state variables is truncated normal and latent. Such recursions are broadly applicable to macroeconometric models, such as vector autoregressions and estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models, that have one or more probit-type equation.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael J. Dueker, 2006. "Kalman filtering with truncated normal state variables for Bayesian estimation of macroeconomic models," Working Papers 2005-057, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2005-057
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Michael Dueker, 2005. "Dynamic Forecasts of Qualitative Variables: A Qual VAR Model of U.S. Recessions," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 96-104, January.
    2. Sylvia Frühwirth‐Schnatter, 1994. "Data Augmentation And Dynamic Linear Models," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(2), pages 183-202, March.
    3. Eichengreen, Barry & Watson, Mark W & Grossman, Richard S, 1985. "Bank Rate Policy under the Interwar Gold Standard: A Dynamic Probit Model," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 95(379), pages 725-745, September.
    4. Chib, Siddhartha & Greenberg, Edward, 1996. "Markov Chain Monte Carlo Simulation Methods in Econometrics," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(3), pages 409-431, August.
    5. repec:cup:etheor:v:12:y:1996:i:3:p:409-31 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Kuttner, Kenneth N, 1994. "Estimating Potential Output as a Latent Variable," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 361-368, July.
    7. Horowitz, Joel L, 1992. "A Smoothed Maximum Score Estimator for the Binary Response Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(3), pages 505-531, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ali Genç, 2013. "Moments of truncated normal/independent distributions," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 54(3), pages 741-764, August.
    2. Michael Dueker & Katrin Assenmacher-Wesche, 2010. "Forecasting macro variables with a Qual VAR business cycle turning point index," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(23), pages 2909-2920.

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    Keywords

    Macroeconomics - Econometric models;

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