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Green-lighting scripts in the movie pre-production stage: An application of consumption experience carryover theory

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  • Moon, Sangkil
  • Jalali, Nima
  • Song, Reo

Abstract

In the movie pre-production stage, movie studios have scarce information about the movie in planning to select and edit the right script that can be commercially successful. Given this constraint, we provide a procedure of predicting movie revenues in the movie pre-production stage. To utilize the contents of textual scripts as the primary information source, we theoretically predicate the procedure on the market’s collective consumption experiences with prior movies sharing similar content features with the new movie. We hypothesize that the market wants to enjoy not only certain content features again (as positive carryover effects), but also different content features (as negative carryover effects) in the new movie. Toward this end, we integrate two distinct components into our prediction procedure: (1) LIWC (a text-mining tool) and (2) the auto-Gaussian spatial model. Our empirical application demonstrates that our procedure outperforms select benchmark models in predictive accuracy.

Suggested Citation

  • Moon, Sangkil & Jalali, Nima & Song, Reo, 2022. "Green-lighting scripts in the movie pre-production stage: An application of consumption experience carryover theory," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 332-345.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbrese:v:140:y:2022:i:c:p:332-345
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbusres.2021.11.004
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