Modeling Movie Life Cycles and Market Share
We examine box-office sales in the context of a market share model. This is accomplished by developing a combination of a sliding-window logit model and a gamma diffusion pattern in a hierarchical Bayes framework. We show that accounting for the full choice set available every week not only increases the fit of weekly movie sales but also leads to parameter estimates that depict a richer picture of the movie industry. We show that movie studios appear to have a good understanding of the products they produce, knowing when to support them and when not to. We also show that the effect of the number of opening week screens is overestimated in traditional models. Our research indicates that actors have a direct and directors an indirect effect on consumers’ movie choice. Releasing a movie contemporaneously with other movies of the same genre adversely affects box-office performance all around. Releasing a movie against movies of the same Motion Picture Association of America (MPAA) rating hurts its sales in the beginning, but there is a displacement effect, which leads to a less severe sales loss in the long run.
Volume (Year): 24 (2005)
Issue (Month): 3 (November)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 7240 Parkway Drive, Suite 300, Hanover, MD 21076 USA|
Web page: http://www.informs.org/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Ramya Neelamegham & Pradeep Chintagunta, 1999. "A Bayesian Model to Forecast New Product Performance in Domestic and International Markets," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 18(2), pages 115-136.
- Anita Elberse & Jehoshua Eliashberg, 2003. "Demand and Supply Dynamics for Sequentially Released Products in International Markets: The Case of Motion Pictures," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 22(3), pages 329-354.
- Mohanbir S. Sawhney & Jehoshua Eliashberg, 1996. "A Parsimonious Model for Forecasting Gross Box-Office Revenues of Motion Pictures," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 15(2), pages 113-131.
- Thomas J. Steenburgh & Andrew Ainslie & Peder Hans Engebretson, 2003. "Massively Categorical Variables: Revealing the Information in Zip Codes," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 22(1), pages 40-57, August.
- Sanjeev Swami & Jehoshua Eliashberg & Charles B. Weinberg, 1999. "SilverScreener: A Modeling Approach to Movie Screens Management," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 18(3), pages 352-372.
- Nelson, Phillip J, 1975. "The Economic Consequences of Advertising," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 48(2), pages 213-41, April.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inm:ormksc:v:24:y:2005:i:3:p:508-517. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Mirko Janc)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.