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How are retail investors informed? A perspective from institutional trading intention exposure

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  • Sun, Xuchu
  • Zhang, Qing
  • Li, Tangrong

Abstract

It is increasingly recognized that retail trades may contain predictive information, but an open question remains: how are they informed? This paper explores a possible explanation through the lens of institutional trading intention exposure. Using tick-by-tick data from the Chinese market, we find that retail order imbalance positively predicts stock returns at the weekly horizon. Approximately 20% of this predictive power is attributable to institutional trading intentions exposed on the order book, suggesting that some retail investors may incorporate exposed institutional intentions into their own trading decisions. The information channel is particularly pronounced when institutional intentions are revealed through limit orders, among small retail traders, and in specific macro- and micro-level market environments. Overall, our findings highlight the critical role of institutional trading intention exposure in shaping the return predictability of retail investors, particularly in emerging market contexts.

Suggested Citation

  • Sun, Xuchu & Zhang, Qing & Li, Tangrong, 2026. "How are retail investors informed? A perspective from institutional trading intention exposure," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:106:y:2026:i:c:s1042443125001490
    DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102259
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    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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