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Hedge fund performance and persistence in bull and bear markets

Author

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  • Daniel Capocci
  • Albert Corhay
  • Georges Hubner

Abstract

This paper tests the performance of 2894 hedge funds in a time period that encompasses unambiguously bullish and bearish trends whose pivot is commonly set at March 2000. The database proves to be fairly trustable with respect to the most important biases in hedge funds studies, despite the high attrition rate of funds observed in the down market. An original ten-factor composite performance model is applied that achieves very high significance levels. The analysis of performance indicates that most hedge funds significantly outperformed the market during the whole test period, mostly thanks to the bullish subperiod. In contrast, no significant underperformance of individual hedge funds strategies is observed when markets headed south. The analysis of persistence yields very similar results, with most of the predictability being found among middle performers during the bullish period. However, the 'Market Neutral' strategy represents a remarkable exception, as abnormal performance is sustained throughout and significant persistence can be found between the 20% and 69% best performers in this category, probably thanks to an extreme adaptability and a very active investment behaviour.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel Capocci & Albert Corhay & Georges Hubner, 2005. "Hedge fund performance and persistence in bull and bear markets," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(5), pages 361-392.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:eurjfi:v:11:y:2005:i:5:p:361-392
    DOI: 10.1080/1351847042000286676
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. " On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
    2. Grinblatt, Mark & Titman, Sheridan & Wermers, Russ, 1995. "Momentum Investment Strategies, Portfolio Performance, and Herding: A Study of Mutual Fund Behavior," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1088-1105, December.
    3. Stephen J. Brown, 2001. "Careers and Survival: Competition and Risk in the Hedge Fund and CTA Industry," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(5), pages 1869-1886, October.
    4. Fung, William & Hsieh, David A., 2000. "Performance Characteristics of Hedge Funds and Commodity Funds: Natural vs. Spurious Biases," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(03), pages 291-307, September.
    5. Fabozzi, Frank J & Francis, Jack C, 1979. "Mutual Fund Systematic Risk for Bull and Bear Markets: An Empirical Examination," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 34(5), pages 1243-1250, December.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jiong Gong & Ping Jiang & Shu Tian, 2016. "Contractual mutual fund governance: the case of China," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 543-567, April.
    2. Anastasia Petraki & Anna Zalewska, 2013. "With whom and in what is it better to save? Personal pensions in the UK," The Centre for Market and Public Organisation 13/304, Department of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
    3. Chen, Li-Wen & Chen, Fan, 2009. "Does concurrent management of mutual and hedge funds create conflicts of interest?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(8), pages 1423-1433, August.
    4. Auer, Benjamin R. & Schuhmacher, Frank, 2013. "Robust evidence on the similarity of Sharpe ratio and drawdown-based hedge fund performance rankings," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 153-165.
    5. Hentati-Kaffel, Rania & de Peretti, Philippe, 2015. "Detecting performance persistence of hedge funds," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 185-192.
    6. Darolles, Serge & Vaissié, Mathieu, 2012. "The alpha and omega of fund of hedge fund added value," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1067-1078.
    7. Eling, Martin & Faust, Roger, 2010. "The performance of hedge funds and mutual funds in emerging markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(8), pages 1993-2009, August.
    8. Wilkens, Marco & Yao, Juan & Jeyasreedharan, Nagaratnam & Oehler, Patrick, 2013. "Measuring the performance of hedge funds using two-stage peer group benchmarks," Working Papers 2013-18, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics, revised 01 Jun 2013.
    9. Bebel, Arkadiusz, 2014. "Low Versus High Leverage (LVH)," MPRA Paper 62889, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 08 Nov 2014.
    10. Auer, Benjamin R. & Schuhmacher, Frank, 2013. "Performance hypothesis testing with the Sharpe ratio: The case of hedge funds," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 196-208.
    11. Rania Hentati Kaffel & Philippe De Peretti, 2014. "Detecting Performance Persistence of Hedge Funds : A Runs-Based Analysis," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-00984777, HAL.
    12. Benoît Dewaele, 2013. "Leverage and Alpha: The Case of Funds of Hedge Funds," Working Papers CEB 13-033, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    13. Rania Hentati Kaffel & Philippe De Peretti, 2014. "Detecting Performance Persistence of Hedge Funds : A Runs-Based Analysis," Working Papers hal-00984777, HAL.
    14. Benoît Dewaele & Hugues Pirotte & N. Tuchschmid & E. Wallerstein, 2011. "Assessing the Performance of Funds of Hedge Funds," Working Papers CEB 11-041, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    15. Huyen Nguyen-Thi-Thanh, 2007. "Assessing Hedge Fund Performance: Does the Choice of Measures Matter?," Working Papers halshs-00184814, HAL.
    16. Benoît Dewaele, 2013. "Portfolio Optimization for Hedge Funds through Time-Varying Coefficients," Working Papers CEB 13-032, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    17. repec:pal:assmgt:v:17:y:2016:i:5:d:10.1057_jam.2016.7 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Wegener, Christian & von Nitzsch, Rüdiger & Cengiz, Cetin, 2010. "An advanced perspective on the predictability in hedge fund returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 2694-2708, November.
    19. repec:eee:ecofin:v:42:y:2017:i:c:p:654-667 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Gustavo Passarelli Giroud Joaquim & Marcelo Leite Moura, 2011. "Performance and Persistence of Brazilian Hedge Funds During the Financial Crisis," Brazilian Review of Finance, Brazilian Society of Finance, vol. 9(4), pages 525-548.
    21. Khaled Guesmi & Saoussen Jebri & Abdelkarim Jabri & Frédéric Teulon, 2014. "Are hedge funds uncorrelated with financial markets? An empirical assessment," Working Papers 2014-103, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    22. Szabolcs Blazsek & Anna Downarowicz, 2013. "Forecasting hedge fund volatility: a Markov regime-switching approach," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(4), pages 243-275, April.
    23. Laurent Bodson & Alain Coën & Georges Hübner, 2010. "Dynamic Hedge Fund Style Analysis With Errors-In-Variables," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 33(3), pages 201-221.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Hedge funds; funds of funds; selection bias; abnormal returns; bullish market; bearish market; persistence;

    JEL classification:

    • G2 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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