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Optimal dynamic asset allocation for DC plan accumulation/decumulation: Ambition-CVAR

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  • Forsyth, Peter A.

Abstract

We consider the late accumulation stage, followed by the full decumulation stage, of an investor in a defined contribution (DC) pension plan. The investor’s portfolio consists of a stock index and a bond index. As a measure of risk, we use conditional value at risk (CVAR) at the end of the decumulation stage. This is a measure of the risk of depleting the DC plan, which is primarily driven by sequence of return risk and asset allocation during the decumulation stage. As a measure of reward, we use Ambition, which we define to be the probability that the terminal wealth exceeds a specified level. We develop a method for computing the optimal dynamic asset allocation strategy which generates points on the efficient Ambition-CVAR frontier. By examining the Ambition-CVAR efficient frontier, we can determine points that are Median-CVAR optimal. We carry out numerical tests comparing the Median-CVAR optimal strategy to a benchmark constant proportion strategy. For a fixed median value (from the benchmark strategy) we find that the optimal Median-CVAR control significantly improves the CVAR. In addition, the median allocation to stocks at retirement is considerably smaller than the benchmark allocation to stocks.

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  • Forsyth, Peter A., 2020. "Optimal dynamic asset allocation for DC plan accumulation/decumulation: Ambition-CVAR," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 230-245.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:insuma:v:93:y:2020:i:c:p:230-245
    DOI: 10.1016/j.insmatheco.2020.05.005
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    Cited by:

    1. Chendi Ni & Yuying Li & Peter A. Forsyth, 2023. "Neural Network Approach to Portfolio Optimization with Leverage Constraints:a Case Study on High Inflation Investment," Papers 2304.05297, arXiv.org, revised May 2023.
    2. Peter A. Forsyth & Kenneth R. Vetzal & Graham Westmacott, 2021. "Optimal control of the decumulation of a retirement portfolio with variable spending and dynamic asset allocation," Papers 2101.02760, arXiv.org.
    3. Forsyth, Peter A., 2022. "Short term decumulation strategies for underspending retirees," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 56-74.
    4. Peter A. Forsyth, 2020. "A Stochastic Control Approach to Defined Contribution Plan Decumulation: "The Nastiest, Hardest Problem in Finance"," Papers 2008.06598, arXiv.org.
    5. Peter A. Forsyth & Kenneth R. Vetzal & G. Westmacott, 2022. "Optimal performance of a tontine overlay subject to withdrawal constraints," Papers 2211.10509, arXiv.org.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Optimal control; Ambition-CVAR; Asset allocation; DC plan; Resampled backtests;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies

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