Common mortality modeling and coherent forecasts. An empirical analysis of worldwide mortality data
A new common mortality modeling structure is presented for analyzing mortality dynamics for a pool of countries, under the framework of generalized linear models (GLM). The countries are first classified by fuzzy c-means cluster analysis in order to construct the common sparse age-period model structure for the mortality experience. Next, we propose a method to create the common sex difference age-period model structure and then use this to produce the residual age-periodmodel structure for each country and sex. The time related principal components are extrapolated using dynamic linear regression (DLR) models and coherent mortality forecasts are investigated. We make use of mortality data from the “Human Mortality Database”.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 52 (2013)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505554|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Nan Li & Ronald Lee, 2005. "Coherent mortality forecasts for a group of populations: An extension of the lee-carter method," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 42(3), pages 575-594, August.
- Chris Wilson, 2001. "On the Scale of Global Demographic Convergence 1950-2000," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 27(1), pages 155-171.
- Hatzopoulos, P. & Haberman, S., 2011. "A dynamic parameterization modeling for the age-period-cohort mortality," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 155-174, September.
- Hatzopoulos, P. & Haberman, S., 2009. "A parameterized approach to modeling and forecasting mortality," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 103-123, February.
- Harvey,Andrew C., 1991.
"Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter,"
Cambridge University Press, number 9780521405737.
- Harvey,Andrew C., 1990. "Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521321969.
- Renshaw, A. E. & Haberman, S., 2003. "Lee-Carter mortality forecasting with age-specific enhancement," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 255-272, October.
- Kevin M. White, 2002. "Longevity Advances in High-Income Countries, 1955-96," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 28(1), pages 59-76.
- Shiro Horiuchi & John Wilmoth, 1998. "Deceleration in the age pattern of mortality at olderages," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 35(4), pages 391-412, November. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:insuma:v:52:y:2013:i:2:p:320-337. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.