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On the Scale of Global Demographic Convergence 1950-2000

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  • Chris Wilson

Abstract

The second half of the twentieth century saw global demographic change of unprecedented magnitude, with pronounced falls in both mortality and fertility in many developing countries. This article assesses the extent to which these changes have led to the convergence of demographic patterns around the world. It considers not just the levels of fertility and mortality in each country at different points in time, but also the size of each population. It also disaggregates China and India into their constituent provinces and states in order to provide estimates for units more typical of the size of the populations of other countries. The note presents proportions of the world's population according to the levels of life expectancy and total fertility they experienced in the early 1950s, the late 1970s, and around 2000. The graphs and tables thus produced give a convenient and novel way to view the scale and nature of demographic convergence over the last 50 years. Copyright 2001 by The Population Council, Inc..

Suggested Citation

  • Chris Wilson, 2001. "On the Scale of Global Demographic Convergence 1950-2000," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 27(1), pages 155-171.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:popdev:v:27:y:2001:i:1:p:155-171
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Patrick Heuveline, 1999. "The Global and Regional Impact of Mortality and Fertility Transitions, 1950-2000," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 25(4), pages 681-702.
    2. Lant Pritchett, 1997. "Divergence, Big Time," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(3), pages 3-17, Summer.
    3. Geoffrey McNicoll, 1999. "Population Weights in the International Order," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 25(3), pages 411-442.
    4. John Bongaarts & Rodolfo A. Bulatao, 1999. "Completing the Demographic Transition," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 25(3), pages 515-529.
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    Cited by:

    1. Holger Strulik & Sebastian Vollmer, 2010. "The Fertility Transition Around the World - 1950-2005," PGDA Working Papers 5710, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
    2. Ahmadi, Seyed Saeed & Li, Johnny Siu-Hang, 2014. "Coherent mortality forecasting with generalized linear models: A modified time-transformation approach," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 194-221.
    3. repec:bla:jrinsu:v:84:y:2017:i:3:p:1025-1065 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Kwok Tong Soo, 2014. "Zipf, Gibrat and geography: Evidence from China, India and Brazil," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 93(1), pages 159-181, March.
    5. Clark, Rob, 2011. "World health inequality: Convergence, divergence, and development," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 72(4), pages 617-624, February.
    6. Wang, Chou-Wen & Huang, Hong-Chih & Hong, De-Chuan, 2013. "A feasible natural hedging strategy for insurance companies," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 532-541.
    7. Rui Zhou & Johnny Siu-Hang Li & Ken Seng Tan, 2013. "Pricing Standardized Mortality Securitizations: A Two-Population Model With Transitory Jump Effects," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 80(3), pages 733-774, September.
    8. Yang, Sharon S. & Wang, Chou-Wen, 2013. "Pricing and securitization of multi-country longevity risk with mortality dependence," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 157-169.
    9. Hippolyte D'Albis & Loesse Jacques Esso & Héctor Pifarré I Arolas, 2014. "Persistent Differences in Mortality Patterns across Industrialized Countries," PSE - Labex "OSE-Ouvrir la Science Economique" hal-01061000, HAL.
    10. Shawn F. Dorius, 2008. "Global Demographic Convergence? A Reconsideration of Changing Intercountry Inequality in Fertility," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 34(3), pages 519-537.
    11. Hatzopoulos, P. & Haberman, S., 2013. "Common mortality modeling and coherent forecasts. An empirical analysis of worldwide mortality data," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 320-337.

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