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A Bayesian dichotomous model with asymmetric link for fraud in insurance

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  • Bermúdez, Ll.
  • Pérez, J.M.
  • Ayuso, M.
  • Gómez, E.
  • Vázquez, F.J.

Abstract

Standard binary models have been developed to describe the behavior of consumers when they are faced with two choices. The classical logit model presents the feature of the symmetric link function. However, symmetric links do not provide good fits for data where one response is much more frequent than the other (as it happens in the insurance fraud context). In this paper, we use an asymmetric or skewed logit link, proposed by Chen et al. [Chen, M., Dey, D., Shao, Q., 1999. A new skewed link model for dichotomous quantal response data. J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 94 (448), 1172-1186], to fit a fraud database from the Spanish insurance market. Bayesian analysis of this model is developed by using data augmentation and Gibbs sampling. The results show that the use of an asymmetric link notably improves the percentage of cases that are correctly classified after the model estimation.

Suggested Citation

  • Bermúdez, Ll. & Pérez, J.M. & Ayuso, M. & Gómez, E. & Vázquez, F.J., 2008. "A Bayesian dichotomous model with asymmetric link for fraud in insurance," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 779-786, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:insuma:v:42:y:2008:i:2:p:779-786
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Steven B. Caudill & Mercedes Ayuso & Montserrat Guillén, 2005. "Fraud Detection Using a Multinomial Logit Model With Missing Information," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 72(4), pages 539-550.
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    5. Viaene, Stijn & Ayuso, Mercedes & Guillen, Montserrat & Van Gheel, Dirk & Dedene, Guido, 2007. "Strategies for detecting fraudulent claims in the automobile insurance industry," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 176(1), pages 565-583, January.
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    7. Belhadji, B. & Dionne, G., 1997. "Development of an Expert System for Automatic Detection of Automobile Insurance Fraud," Ecole des Hautes Etudes Commerciales de Montreal- 97-06, Ecole des Hautes Etudes Commerciales de Montreal-Chaire de gestion des risques..
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    Cited by:

    1. Katja Müller & Hato Schmeiser & Joël Wagner, 2016. "The impact of auditing strategies on insurers’ profitability," Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 17(1), pages 46-79, January.
    2. Bayerstadler, Andreas & van Dijk, Linda & Winter, Fabian, 2016. "Bayesian multinomial latent variable modeling for fraud and abuse detection in health insurance," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, pages 244-252.

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