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Critical infrastructure protection under imperfect attacker perception

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  • Jenelius, Erik
  • Westin, Jonas
  • Holmgren, Åke J.

Abstract

This paper considers the problem of allocating finite resources among the elements of a critical infrastructure system in order to protect it from antagonistic attacks. Previous studies have assumed that the attacker has complete information about the utilities associated with attacks on each element. In reality, it is likely that the attacker’s perception of the system is not as precise as the defender’s, due to geographical separation from the system, secrecy, surveillance, complex system properties, etc. As a result, the attacker’s actions may not be those anticipated under the assumption of complete information. We present a modeling framework that incorporates imperfect attacker perception by introducing random observation errors in a previously studied baseline model. We analyze how the perceptive ability affects the attack probabilities and the defender’s disutility and optimal resource allocation. We show for example that the optimal resource allocation may differ significantly from the baseline model, that a less perceptive attacker may cause greater disutility for the defender, and that increasing the investment in an element can increase the expected disutility even in a zero-sum situation.

Suggested Citation

  • Jenelius, Erik & Westin, Jonas & Holmgren, Åke J., 2010. "Critical infrastructure protection under imperfect attacker perception," International Journal of Critical Infrastructure Protection, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 16-26.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ijocip:v:3:y:2010:i:1:p:16-26
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ijcip.2009.10.002
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    6. Nageswara S. V. Rao & Chris Y. T. Ma & Fei He & David K. Y. Yau & Jun Zhuang, 2018. "Cyber–Physical Correlation Effects in Defense Games for Large Discrete Infrastructures," Games, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-24, July.
    7. Nageswara S. V. Rao & Stephen W. Poole & Chris Y. T. Ma & Fei He & Jun Zhuang & David K. Y. Yau, 2016. "Defense of Cyber Infrastructures Against Cyber‐Physical Attacks Using Game‐Theoretic Models," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(4), pages 694-710, April.
    8. Mohammad E. Nikoofal & Mehmet Gümüs, 2015. "On the value of terrorist’s private information in a government’s defensive resource allocation problem," IISE Transactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(6), pages 533-555, June.
    9. Wang, Shuliang & Sun, Jingya & Zhang, Jianhua & Dong, Qiqi & Gu, Xifeng & Chen, Chen, 2023. "Attack-Defense game analysis of critical infrastructure network based on Cournot model with fixed operating nodes," International Journal of Critical Infrastructure Protection, Elsevier, vol. 40(C).
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    13. Losada, Chaya & Scaparra, M. Paola & O’Hanley, Jesse R., 2012. "Optimizing system resilience: A facility protection model with recovery time," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 217(3), pages 519-530.
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    15. Han, Lin & Zhao, Xudong & Chen, Zhilong & Wu, Yipeng & Su, Xiaochao & Zhang, Ning, 2021. "Optimal allocation of defensive resources to defend urban power networks against different types of attackers," International Journal of Critical Infrastructure Protection, Elsevier, vol. 35(C).

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