IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/glofin/v63y2024ics104402832400111x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Political polarization and state government bonds

Author

Listed:
  • Li, Pei
  • Tang, Leo
  • Cloyd, C. Bryan

Abstract

This study examines the effect of political polarization in state legislatures on state bond yields in the United States. Political polarization, defined as the ideological divide between Democratic and Republican members of the state legislative chambers, reflects legislators' willingness to seek bipartisan compromises. We expect high polarization states to be riskier because they are likelier to experience gridlock, negatively affecting economic development and debt service commitment. Findings suggest a significant positive relation between bond yields and political polarization. A one-standard-deviation increase in polarization increases bond yields by 7.81 basis points and total interest expense by $2.3 million for an average bond issue. Additionally, this study finds that the effect of polarization on bond yields is stronger for general obligation bonds.

Suggested Citation

  • Li, Pei & Tang, Leo & Cloyd, C. Bryan, 2024. "Political polarization and state government bonds," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:glofin:v:63:y:2024:i:c:s104402832400111x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.gfj.2024.101039
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S104402832400111X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.gfj.2024.101039?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2018. "Finance and Business Cycles: The Credit-Driven Household Demand Channel," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(3), pages 31-58, Summer.
    2. Coibion, Olivier & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Weber, Michael, 2020. "Political Polarization and Expected Economic Outcomes," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt9h51c373, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    3. Besley, Timothy & Persson, Torsten & Sturm, Daniel, 2010. "Political competition, policy and growth: theory and evidence from the United States," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 121718, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    4. Gurkaynak, Refet S. & Sack, Brian & Wright, Jonathan H., 2007. "The U.S. Treasury yield curve: 1961 to the present," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 2291-2304, November.
    5. Elisabeth Kempf & Margarita Tsoutsoura, 2021. "Partisan Professionals: Evidence from Credit Rating Analysts," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(6), pages 2805-2856, December.
    6. Alexander W. Butler, 2008. "Distance Still Matters: Evidence from Municipal Bond Underwriting," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(2), pages 763-784, April.
    7. Tania Babina & Chotibhak Jotikasthira & Christian Lundblad & Tarun Ramadorai, 2021. "Heterogeneous Taxes and Limited Risk Sharing: Evidence from Municipal Bonds [The distribution of realized stock return volatility]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(1), pages 509-568.
    8. Schultz, Paul, 2012. "The market for new issues of municipal bonds: The roles of transparency and limited access to retail investors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(3), pages 492-512.
    9. Kessel, Reuben, 1971. "A Study of the Effects of Competition in the Tax-exempt Bond Market," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(4), pages 706-738, July-Aug..
    10. Alexander W. Butler & Larry Fauver & Sandra Mortal, 2009. "Corruption, Political Connections, and Municipal Finance," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(7), pages 2673-2705, July.
    11. Benson, Earl D, 1979. "The Search for Information by Underwriters and Its Impact on Municipal Interest Cost," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 34(4), pages 871-885, September.
    12. Svensson, Lars E O, 1994. "Estimating and Interpreting Forward Interest Rates: Sweden 1992-4," CEPR Discussion Papers 1051, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Abakah, Alex Annan, 2023. "The impact of term limits on municipal borrowing costs," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    14. Tufte, Edward R., 1973. "The Relationship between Seats and Votes in Two-Party Systems," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 67(2), pages 540-554, June.
    15. Svensson, L.E.O., 1994. "Estimating and Interpreting Foreward Interest Rates: Sweden 1992-1994," Papers 579, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
    16. James M. Poterba & Kim Rueben, 1999. "State Fiscal Institutions and the U.S. Municipal Bond Market," NBER Chapters, in: Fiscal Institutions and Fiscal Performance, pages 181-208, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Binder, Sarah A., 1999. "The Dynamics of Legislative Gridlock, 1947–96," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 93(3), pages 519-533, September.
    18. Young Joo Park & David S.T. Matkin & Justin Marlowe, 2017. "Internal Control Deficiencies and Municipal Borrowing Costs," Public Budgeting & Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(1), pages 88-111, March.
    19. Timothy Besley & Anne Case, 1995. "Does Electoral Accountability Affect Economic Policy Choices? Evidence from Gubernatorial Term Limits," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(3), pages 769-798.
    20. Robert Novy-Marx & Joshua D. Rauh, 2012. "Fiscal Imbalances and Borrowing Costs: Evidence from State Investment Losses," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 182-213, May.
    21. Francis A. Longstaff, 2011. "Municipal Debt and Marginal Tax Rates: Is There a Tax Premium in Asset Prices?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(3), pages 721-751, June.
    22. Gao, Pengjie & Lee, Chang & Murphy, Dermot, 2019. "Municipal borrowing costs and state policies for distressed municipalities," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(2), pages 404-426.
    23. Hendrik Bessembinder & Kathleen M. Kahle & William F. Maxwell & Danielle Xu, 2009. "Measuring Abnormal Bond Performance," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(10), pages 4219-4258, October.
    24. Baber, William R. & Gore, Angela K. & Rich, Kevin T. & Zhang, Jean X., 2013. "Accounting restatements, governance and municipal debt financing," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 212-227.
    25. Bourdeau-Brien, Michael & Kryzanowski, Lawrence, 2019. "Municipal financing costs following disasters," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 48-64.
    26. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:2:p:899-931 is not listed on IDEAS
    27. Timothy Besley & Torsten Persson & Daniel M. Sturm, 2010. "Political Competition, Policy and Growth: Theory and Evidence from the US," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 77(4), pages 1329-1352.
    28. Nolan McCarty & Keith T. Poole & Howard Rosenthal, 2009. "Does Gerrymandering Cause Polarization?," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 53(3), pages 666-680, July.
    29. Tania Babina & Chotibhak Jotikasthira & Christian Lundblad & Tarun Ramadorai & Andrew Karolyi, 2021. "Heterogeneous Taxes and Limited Risk Sharing: Evidence from Municipal Bonds," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 34(1), pages 509-568.
    30. Brown, Craig O., 2017. "The politics of government financial management: Evidence from state bonds," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 158-175.
    31. SHOR, BORIS & McCARTY, NOLAN, 2011. "The Ideological Mapping of American Legislatures," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 105(3), pages 530-551, August.
    32. Michael Schwert, 2017. "Municipal Bond Liquidity and Default Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 72(4), pages 1683-1722, August.
    33. Cuny, Christine, 2016. "Voluntary disclosure incentives: Evidence from the municipal bond market," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 87-102.
    34. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:5:p:2253-2280 is not listed on IDEAS
    35. Lawrence E. Harris & Michael S. Piwowar, 2006. "Secondary Trading Costs in the Municipal Bond Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(3), pages 1361-1397, June.
    36. Blackwell, David W. & Kidwell, David S., 1988. "An investigation of cost differences between public sales and private placements of debt," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 253-278, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Butler, Alexander W. & Yi, Hanyi, 2022. "Aging and public financing costs: Evidence from U.S. municipal bond markets," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 211(C).
    2. Pei Li & Leo Tang & Bikki Jaggi, 2018. "Social Capital and the Municipal Bond Market," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 153(2), pages 479-501, December.
    3. Gao, Pengjie & Lee, Chang & Murphy, Dermot, 2020. "Financing dies in darkness? The impact of newspaper closures on public finance," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(2), pages 445-467.
    4. Baridhi Malakar, 2024. "Essays on Responsible and Sustainable Finance," Papers 2406.12995, arXiv.org.
    5. Gao, Pengjie & Lee, Chang & Murphy, Dermot, 2022. "Good for your fiscal health? The effect of the affordable care act on healthcare borrowing costs," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(2), pages 464-488.
    6. Ivanov, Ivan T. & Zimmermann, Tom, 2024. "The “Privatization” of municipal debt," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    7. Gao, Pengjie & Lee, Chang & Murphy, Dermot, 2019. "Municipal borrowing costs and state policies for distressed municipalities," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(2), pages 404-426.
    8. Lu, Runjing & Ye, Zihan, 2023. "Roe v. Rates: Reproductive Healthcare and Public Financing Costs," SocArXiv 7t5jz, Center for Open Science.
    9. repec:osf:socarx:7t5jz_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Tran, Nhu & Uzmanoglu, Cihan, 2023. "Reprint of: COVID-19, lockdowns, and the municipal bond market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    11. Andrew F. Haughwout & Benjamin Hyman & Or Shachar, 2021. "The Option Value of Municipal Liquidity: Evidence from Federal Lending Cutoffs during COVID-19," Staff Reports 988, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    12. Tran, Nhu & Uzmanoglu, Cihan, 2022. "COVID-19, lockdowns, and the municipal bond market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    13. Choi, Hae Mi & Gupta-Mukherjee, Swasti, 2024. "Public sector unions and municipal debt," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    14. Stephanie F. Cheng & Christine Cuny & Hao Xue, 2023. "Disclosure and Competition for Capital," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(7), pages 4312-4330, July.
    15. Jess N. Cornaggia & Kimberly J. Cornaggia & Ryan D. Israelsen, 2020. "Where the Heart Is: Information Production and the Home Bias," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(12), pages 5532-5557, December.
    16. Ivanov, Ivan T. & Zimmermann, Tom & Heinrich, Nathan W., 2022. "Limits of disclosure regulation in the municipal bond market," CFR Working Papers 22-05, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    17. Cheng, Stephanie F. & De Franco, Gus & Lin, Pengkai, 2023. "Marijuana liberalization and public finance: A capital market perspective on the passage of medical use laws," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1).
    18. Dougal, Casey & Gao, Pengjie & Mayew, William J. & Parsons, Christopher A., 2019. "What’s in a (school) name? Racial discrimination in higher education bond markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(3), pages 570-590.
    19. Stephanie F. Cheng, 2021. "The Information Externality of Public Firms’ Financial Information in the State‐Bond Secondary Market," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(2), pages 529-574, May.
    20. Dario Cestau & Burton Hollifield & Dan Li & Norman Schürhoff, 2019. "Municipal Bond Markets," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 11(1), pages 65-84, December.
    21. Schelker, Mark, 2018. "Lame ducks and divided government: How voters control the unaccountable," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 131-144.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Government borrowing cost; Political polarization; State bonds;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • H70 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - General
    • G00 - Financial Economics - - General - - - General
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • H00 - Public Economics - - General - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:glofin:v:63:y:2024:i:c:s104402832400111x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620162 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.