IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finlet/v85y2025ipds1544612325014679.html

Geopolitical risk and firm climate change risk

Author

Listed:
  • Rahim, Noraimah Farah
  • Sulong, Zunaidah
  • Abdullah, Mohammad
  • Wali Ullah, G. M.

Abstract

This study examines the impact of geopolitical risk on firm-level climate change risk. Using a dataset of 56,601 firm-year observations from 40 countries over the period 2004 to 2022, we document that increased geopolitical risk increases firms' climate change risk. Our results remain consistent across alternative proxies and after addressing endogeneity concerns through 2-stage least squares and entropy balancing. We find the effect to be more pronounced for firms facing higher cash flow volatility, financial constraints and leverage. Our findings provide valuable insights for policymakers and corporate managers in formulating resilient strategies during times of geopolitical conflict.

Suggested Citation

  • Rahim, Noraimah Farah & Sulong, Zunaidah & Abdullah, Mohammad & Wali Ullah, G. M., 2025. "Geopolitical risk and firm climate change risk," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 85(PD).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:85:y:2025:i:pd:s1544612325014679
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2025.108212
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1544612325014679
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.frl.2025.108212?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dario Caldara & Matteo Iacoviello, 2022. "Measuring Geopolitical Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(4), pages 1194-1225, April.
    2. Zacharias Sautner & Laurence Van Lent & Grigory Vilkov & Ruishen Zhang, 2023. "Firm‐Level Climate Change Exposure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 78(3), pages 1449-1498, June.
    3. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Wang, Chih-Wei, 2021. "Firms' cash reserve, financial constraint, and geopolitical risk," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    4. Huynh, Thanh D. & Nguyen, Thu Ha & Truong, Cameron, 2020. "Climate risk: The price of drought," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    5. Adra, Samer & Gao, Yang & Huang, Jin & Yuan, Jiayi, 2023. "Geopolitical risk and corporate payout policy," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    6. Hainmueller, Jens, 2012. "Entropy Balancing for Causal Effects: A Multivariate Reweighting Method to Produce Balanced Samples in Observational Studies," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(1), pages 25-46, January.
    7. David J. Teece & Gary Pisano & Amy Shuen, 1997. "Dynamic capabilities and strategic management," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(7), pages 509-533, August.
    8. Mohammed Benlemlih & Çiğdem Vural Yavaş, 2024. "Economic Policy Uncertainty and Climate Change: Evidence from CO2 Emission," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 191(3), pages 415-441, May.
    9. Li, Da-yuan & Liu, Juan, 2014. "Dynamic capabilities, environmental dynamism, and competitive advantage: Evidence from China," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 2793-2799.
    10. Gupta, Gaurav, 2023. "Geopolitical risk and investment-cash flow sensitivity: An empirical analysis for Indian business group-affiliated firms and non-business group-affiliated firms," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PD).
    11. Wang, Kai-Hua & Xiong, De-Ping & Mirza, Nawazish & Shao, Xue-Feng & Yue, Xiao-Guang, 2021. "Does geopolitical risk uncertainty strengthen or depress cash holdings of oil enterprises? Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    12. Kathleen M. Eisenhardt & Jeffrey A. Martin, 2000. "Dynamic capabilities: what are they?," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(10‐11), pages 1105-1121, October.
    13. Li, WeiWei & Huang, Zhenxing & Huang, Ruilei & Ning, Zihao, 2025. "Climate policy uncertainty and enterprise labor outsourcing," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 246(C).
    14. Joseph S Shapiro, 2021. "The Environmental Bias of Trade Policy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 136(2), pages 831-886.
    15. Javadi, Siamak & Masum, Abdullah-Al, 2021. "The impact of climate change on the cost of bank loans," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    16. Qing Li & Hongyu Shan & Yuehua Tang & Vincent Yao, 2024. "Corporate Climate Risk: Measurements and Responses," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 37(6), pages 1778-1830.
    17. Tian, Ye & Chen, Songbo & Dai, Li, 2024. "How climate risk drives corporate green innovation: Evidence from China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    18. Viput Ongsakul & Pandej Chintrakarn & Pornsit Jiraporn & Pattanaporn Chatjuthamard, 2024. "Climate change and corporate culture of innovation: evidence from earnings conference calls," Pacific Accounting Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 36(1), pages 161-181, April.
    19. A. Hossain & A.-A. Masum & S. Saadi & R. Benkraiem & N. Das, 2023. "Firm-Level Climate Change Risk and CEO Equity Incentives," Post-Print hal-04434397, HAL.
    20. Chowdhury, Md Shahedur R. & Aram, Mohsen & Javadi, Siamak & Nejadmalayeri, Ali, 2025. "Geopolitical risk and corporate capital structure," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    21. Nora Pankratz & Rob Bauer & Jeroen Derwall, 2023. "Climate Change, Firm Performance, and Investor Surprises," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(12), pages 7352-7398, December.
    22. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Wang, Chih-Wei & Thinh, Bui Tien & Purnama, Muhammad Yusuf Indra, 2023. "Cash holdings and cash flows: Do oil price uncertainty and geopolitical risk matter?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 134-152.
    23. Nguyen, Xuan Thang & Nguyen, Thanh Cong & Hoang, Huy Viet, 2025. "Geopolitical risk and corporate investment efficiency," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    24. Edith Ginglinger & Quentin Moreau, 2023. "Climate Risk and Capital Structure," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(12), pages 7492-7516, December.
    25. Mbanyele, William, 2023. "Foreign institutional investors and carbon emissions along the supply chain," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).
    26. Henry He Huang & Joseph Kerstein & Chong Wang & Feng (Harry) Wu, 2022. "Firm climate risk, risk management, and bank loan financing," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(13), pages 2849-2880, December.
    27. Faccini, Renato & Matin, Rastin & Skiadopoulos, George, 2023. "Dissecting climate risks: Are they reflected in stock prices?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    28. Hossain, Ashrafee T. & Masum, Abdullah-Al, 2022. "Does corporate social responsibility help mitigate firm-level climate change risk?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PB).
    29. Huynh, Thanh D. & Xia, Ying, 2021. "Climate Change News Risk and Corporate Bond Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 56(6), pages 1985-2009, September.
    30. Wang, Xueting & Wang, Man & Wu, Haoran, 2024. "Geopolitical risk and corporate cash Holdings in China: Precautionary motive and agency problem perspectives," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zheng, Chen & Sun, Zhiyue, 2025. "Organisation capital: A key asset for mitigating firm-level climate change exposure," Journal of Contemporary Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3).
    2. Liu, Chengcheng & Zhang, Mingrui & Lin, Yu-En & Li, Qing, 2026. "Brand capital development, climate risk, and corporate investment efficiency," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    3. He, Feng & Ren, Xingzi & Wang, Yueren & Lei, Xingfan, 2025. "Climate risk and corporate bond credit spreads," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    4. Jiao, Anqi & Sun, Ran & Ren, Honglin, 2025. "Navigating climate policy: Corporate lobbying strategies in response to intensified climate risk exposure," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    5. Roy, Tonoy & Bhuiyan, Rubaiyat Ahsan & Ahmed, Sarwar Uddin & Abdullah, Mohammad, 2024. "Geopolitical conflict and firm bankruptcy risk," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    6. Basha, Shabeen Afsar & Benkraiem, Ramzi & Ben-Nasr, Hamdi & Masum, Abdullah-Al, 2025. "Does political risk exacerbate climate risk? Firm-level evidence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 104(PA).
    7. Li, Wanli & Luo, Dan & Cheng, Teng-Yuan, 2025. "Strategy choices in strategic risk-taking: Does climate risk matter?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    8. Hossain, Ashrafee & Masum, Abdullah-Al & Benkraiem, Ramzi, 2024. "Long-term institutional investors and climate change news Beta," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    9. Benhong Peng & Fei Gao, 2026. "Fortune or Misfortune? Climate Risk and Corporate ESG Performance," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 17(2), pages 5097-5144, April.
    10. Hoang, Khanh & Pham, Linh & Ha, Oanh Kieu & Nghiem, Hoa Xuan, 2025. "Firm-level climate change exposure and firm efficiency," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    11. Bardos, Katsiaryna Salavei & Mishra, Dev R. & Somé, Hyacinthe Y., 2025. "Firm-level climate sentiments, climate politics and implied cost of equity capital," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    12. Agoraki, Konstantina K. & Giaka, Maria & Konstantios, Dimitrios & Negkakis, Ioannis, 2024. "The relationship between firm-level climate change exposure, financial integration, cost of capital and investment efficiency," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    13. Benkraiem, Ramzi & Dimic, Nebojsa & Piljak, Vanja & Swinkels, Laurens & Vulanovic, Milos, 2025. "Media-based climate risks and international corporate bond market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    14. Nguyen, Dat Thanh & Tran, Vuong Thao & Le, Anh & Phan, Dinh Hoang Bach, 2025. "Firm-level climate change exposure and trade credit," Innovation and Green Development, Elsevier, vol. 4(5).
    15. Lai, Fujun & Cheng, Xianli & Li, An & Xiong, Deping & Li, Yunzhong, 2025. "Does flood risk affect the implied cost of equity capital?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    16. Hossain, Ashrafee & Rjiba, Hatem & Zhang, Dongyang, 2023. "Ex-ante litigation risk and firm-level climate-change exposure," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 214(C), pages 731-746.
    17. Dallocchio, Maurizio & D’Ercole, Francesco & Frascati, Domenico & Mariani, Massimo, 2025. "Climate transition and the speed of leverage adjustment," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    18. Jiang, Chuyu & Li, Yating & Zhang, Xuan & Zhao, Yang, 2025. "Climate risk and corporate debt decision," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    19. Ongsakul, Viput & Papangkorn, Suwongrat & Jiraporn, Pornsit, 2023. "Estimating the effect of climate change exposure on firm value using climate policy uncertainty: A text-based approach," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C).
    20. Srivastav, Shashank Prakash & Kannadhasan, M., 2025. "Environment and Energy: Does climate risk shape the energy consumption behavior of firms?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:85:y:2025:i:pd:s1544612325014679. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/frl .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.