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Does policy uncertainty predict the death of M&A deals?

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  • Dang, Man
  • Henry, Darren
  • Thai, Hong An
  • Vo, Xuan Vinh
  • Mazur, Mieszko

Abstract

Using a comprehensive sample of U.S. M&A deals from 2000 through 2020, we examine whether the magnitude of policy uncertainty can explain the likelihood of deal cancellation. Consistent with our conjecture, we find that policy uncertainty is a significant predictor of the death of deals. Moreover, we find evidence of a negative association between policy uncertainty and the target firm stock price levels, implying that the market also incorporates the consequences of policy uncertainty into target valuation and bid likelihood outcomes. Altogether, our findings add to the understanding of the interplay between policy uncertainty and external investments through M&A.

Suggested Citation

  • Dang, Man & Henry, Darren & Thai, Hong An & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Mazur, Mieszko, 2022. "Does policy uncertainty predict the death of M&A deals?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PB).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:46:y:2022:i:pb:s1544612321004657
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2021.102489
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Mergers and acquisitions; Policy uncertainty; Deal withdrawal; Stock price reactions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • G38 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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