IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finlet/v45y2022ics1544612321002282.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The cryptocurrency uncertainty index

Author

Listed:
  • Lucey, Brian M.
  • Vigne, Samuel A.
  • Yarovaya, Larisa
  • Wang, Yizhi

Abstract

We have developed and made available a new Cryptocurrency Uncertainty Index (UCRY) based on news coverage. Our UCRY Index captures two types of uncertainty: that of the price of cryptocurrency (UCRY Price) and uncertainty of cryptocurrency policy (UCRY Policy). We show that the constructed index exhibits distinct movements around major events in cryptocurrency space. We suggest that this index captures uncertainty beyond Bitcoin, and can be used for academic, policy, and practice-driven research.

Suggested Citation

  • Lucey, Brian M. & Vigne, Samuel A. & Yarovaya, Larisa & Wang, Yizhi, 2022. "The cryptocurrency uncertainty index," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:45:y:2022:i:c:s1544612321002282
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2021.102147
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1544612321002282
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.frl.2021.102147?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Huang, Yun & Luk, Paul, 2020. "Measuring economic policy uncertainty in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    2. Wu, Shan & Tong, Mu & Yang, Zhongyi & Derbali, Abdelkader, 2019. "Does gold or Bitcoin hedge economic policy uncertainty?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 171-178.
    3. Benedetti, Hugo & Nikbakht, Ehsan, 2021. "Returns and network growth of digital tokens after cross-listings," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    4. Jonathan Rice, 2020. "Policy Uncertainty Shocks and Small Open Economies in Monetary Union: a Case Study of Ireland," Trinity Economics Papers tep1020, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    5. Demir, Ender & Gozgor, Giray & Lau, Chi Keung Marco & Vigne, Samuel A., 2018. "Does economic policy uncertainty predict the Bitcoin returns? An empirical investigation," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 145-149.
    6. Trimborn, Simon & Härdle, Wolfgang Karl, 2018. "CRIX an Index for cryptocurrencies," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 107-122.
    7. Shaen Corbet & Charles Larkin & Brian M. Lucey & Andrew Meegan & Larisa Yarovaya, 2020. "The impact of macroeconomic news on Bitcoin returns," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(14), pages 1396-1416, September.
    8. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    9. Steven J. Davis, 2016. "An Index of Global Economic Policy Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 22740, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Aysan, Ahmet Faruk & Demir, Ender & Gozgor, Giray & Lau, Chi Keung Marco, 2019. "Effects of the geopolitical risks on Bitcoin returns and volatility," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 511-518.
    11. Manela, Asaf & Moreira, Alan, 2017. "News implied volatility and disaster concerns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(1), pages 137-162.
    12. Corbet, Shaen & Meegan, Andrew & Larkin, Charles & Lucey, Brian & Yarovaya, Larisa, 2018. "Exploring the dynamic relationships between cryptocurrencies and other financial assets," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 28-34.
    13. Fang, Tong & Su, Zhi & Yin, Libo, 2020. "Economic fundamentals or investor perceptions? The role of uncertainty in predicting long-term cryptocurrency volatility," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    14. Akyildirim, Erdinc & Corbet, Shaen & Lucey, Brian & Sensoy, Ahmet & Yarovaya, Larisa, 2020. "The relationship between implied volatility and cryptocurrency returns," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 33(C).
    15. Corbet, Shaen & Larkin, Charles & Lucey, Brian & Meegan, Andrew & Yarovaya, Larisa, 2020. "Cryptocurrency reaction to FOMC Announcements: Evidence of heterogeneity based on blockchain stack position," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 46(C).
    16. Rice, Jonathan, 2020. "Economic Policy Uncertainty in Small Open Economies: a Case Study in Ireland," Research Technical Papers 01/RT/20, Central Bank of Ireland.
    17. Akyildirim, Erdinc & Corbet, Shaen & Sensoy, Ahmet & Yarovaya, Larisa, 2020. "The impact of blockchain related name changes on corporate performance," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    18. Walther, Thomas & Klein, Tony & Bouri, Elie, 2019. "Exogenous drivers of Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency volatility – A mixed data sampling approach to forecasting," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    19. Al Mamun, Md & Uddin, Gazi Salah & Suleman, Muhammad Tahir & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2020. "Geopolitical risk, uncertainty and Bitcoin investment," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 540(C).
    20. Sowmya Subramaniam & Madhumita Chakraborty, 2020. "Investor Attention and Cryptocurrency Returns: Evidence from Quantile Causality Approach," Journal of Behavioral Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 103-115, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Al-Shboul, Mohammad & Assaf, Ata & Mokni, Khaled, 2022. "When bitcoin lost its position: Cryptocurrency uncertainty and the dynamic spillover among cryptocurrencies before and during the COVID-19 pandemic," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    2. Peng‐Fei Dai & John W. Goodell & Luu Duc Toan Huynh & Zhifeng Liu & Shaen Corbet, 2023. "Understanding the transmission of crash risk between cryptocurrency and equity markets," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 58(3), pages 539-573, August.
    3. Wang, Yizhi & Lucey, Brian M. & Vigne, Samuel A. & Yarovaya, Larisa, 2022. "The Effects of Central Bank Digital Currencies News on Financial Markets," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    4. Fang, Tong & Su, Zhi & Yin, Libo, 2020. "Economic fundamentals or investor perceptions? The role of uncertainty in predicting long-term cryptocurrency volatility," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    5. Elsayed, Ahmed H. & Gozgor, Giray & Yarovaya, Larisa, 2022. "Volatility and return connectedness of cryptocurrency, gold, and uncertainty: Evidence from the cryptocurrency uncertainty indices," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PB).
    6. Yin, Libo & Nie, Jing & Han, Liyan, 2021. "Understanding cryptocurrency volatility: The role of oil market shocks," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 233-253.
    7. Al-Shboul, Mohammad & Assaf, Ata & Mokni, Khaled, 2023. "Does economic policy uncertainty drive the dynamic spillover among traditional currencies and cryptocurrencies? The role of the COVID-19 pandemic," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    8. Aharon, David Y. & Demir, Ender & Lau, Chi Keung Marco & Zaremba, Adam, 2022. "Twitter-Based uncertainty and cryptocurrency returns," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    9. Jiang, Yonghong & Wu, Lanxin & Tian, Gengyu & Nie, He, 2021. "Do cryptocurrencies hedge against EPU and the equity market volatility during COVID-19? – New evidence from quantile coherency analysis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    10. Jareño, Francisco & González, María de la O & Tolentino, Marta & Sierra, Karen, 2020. "Bitcoin and gold price returns: A quantile regression and NARDL analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    11. Nektarios Aslanidis & Aurelio F. Bariviera & 'Oscar G. L'opez, 2021. "The link between Bitcoin and Google Trends attention," Papers 2106.07104, arXiv.org.
    12. Kamal, Javed Bin & Hassan, M. Kabir, 2022. "Asymmetric connectedness between cryptocurrency environment attention index and green assets," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 25(C).
    13. Aslanidis, Nektarios & Bariviera, Aurelio F. & López, Óscar G., 2022. "The link between cryptocurrencies and Google Trends attention," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA).
    14. Wang, Yizhi, 2022. "Volatility spillovers across NFTs news attention and financial markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    15. Singh, Sanjeet & Bansal, Pooja & Bhardwaj, Nav, 2022. "Correlation between geopolitical risk, economic policy uncertainty, and Bitcoin using partial and multiple wavelet coherence in P5 + 1 nations," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    16. Christophe Schinckus & Canh Phuc Nguyen & Felicia Hui Ling Chong, 2023. "Between financial and algorithmic dynamics of cryptocurrencies: An exploratory study," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(3), pages 3055-3070, July.
    17. Ben Nouir, Jihed & Ben Haj Hamida, Hayet, 2023. "How do economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk drive Bitcoin volatility?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    18. Mokni, Khaled & Youssef, Manel & Ajmi, Ahdi Noomen, 2022. "COVID-19 pandemic and economic policy uncertainty: The first test on the hedging and safe haven properties of cryptocurrencies," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    19. Ahmed, Walid M.A., 2022. "Robust drivers of Bitcoin price movements: An extreme bounds analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    20. Saud Asaad Al‐Thaqeb & Barrak Ghanim Algharabali & Khaled Tareq Alabdulghafour, 2022. "The pandemic and economic policy uncertainty," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 2784-2794, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cryprocurrencies; Policy and price uncertainty; Uncertainty index; Cryptocurrency uncertainty index;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation
    • C54 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Quantitative Policy Modeling
    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:45:y:2022:i:c:s1544612321002282. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/frl .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.