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Political uncertainty and analysts’ forecasts: Evidence from China

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  • Yu, Sijia
  • Zhang, Junrui
  • Qiu, Meng

Abstract

We examine the impact of political uncertainty on analysts’ earnings forecast accuracy and forecast dispersion. Using the turnover of local government leaders in China, we find robust evidence that there is a reduction in forecast accuracy and an increase in forecast divergence in the presence of political uncertainty. Further, we document the negative relationship between political uncertainty and forecast accuracy is more pronounced when the level of political uncertainty is higher and when companies are more sensitive to political uncertainty. Our findings extend our understanding of political uncertainty to analysts’ behaviors.

Suggested Citation

  • Yu, Sijia & Zhang, Junrui & Qiu, Meng, 2020. "Political uncertainty and analysts’ forecasts: Evidence from China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 36(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:36:y:2020:i:c:s1544612319305033
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2019.101340
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    Cited by:

    1. Lingchen Liu & Yan Gu & Kung‐Cheng Ho & Chiu‐Lan Chang, 2022. "Customer concentration and analyst following: Evidence from China," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(1), pages 97-110, January.
    2. Boubakri, Narjess & Bouslimi, Lobna & Zhong, Rui, 2022. "Political uncertainty and analysts’ forecasts: International evidence," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    3. Gonçalves, Tiago & Barros, Victor & Serra, Gonçalo, 2022. "Political elections uncertainty and earnings management: Does firm size really matter?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    4. Wang, Fengrong & Mbanyele, William & Muchenje, Linda, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and stock liquidity: The mitigating effect of information disclosure," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    5. Wu, Wenxin & Xu, Minya & Zhou, Zixun, 2023. "Targeted poverty alleviation disclosure and analyst forecast accuracy: Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    6. YAO, Dongmin & ZHOU, Shiyu & CHEN, Yijing, 2022. "Price effects in the Chinese stock market: Evidence from the China securities index (CSI300) based on regression discontinuity," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PB).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Political uncertainty; Analysts’ earnings forecast; Forecast accuracy; Forecast dispersion; Political turnover;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • M40 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - General

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