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The impact of expected regulatory changes: The case of banks following the 2016U.S. election

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  • Hachenberg, Britta
  • Kiesel, Florian
  • Kolaric, Sascha
  • Schiereck, Dirk

Abstract

We analyze bank stocks and credit default swap (CDS) spreads around the U.S. presidential election on November 8, 2016. We find a strong rally in bank stocks combined with an overall widening in bank CDS spreads during the days after the announcement of the election result. Following Donald Trump's victory, market participants appear to anticipate a lowering of financial sector regulation, particularly with respect to the Dodd-Frank act. In addition, we find that Global Systemically Important Banks (G-SIBs) reacted more positive than non-G-SIBs, with stocks having larger gains and CDS remaining relatively stable. Non-G-SIB stocks, on the other hand, gained less and their CDS widened, indicating less favorable changes from deregulation than for G-SIBs.

Suggested Citation

  • Hachenberg, Britta & Kiesel, Florian & Kolaric, Sascha & Schiereck, Dirk, 2017. "The impact of expected regulatory changes: The case of banks following the 2016U.S. election," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 268-273.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:22:y:2017:i:c:p:268-273
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2016.12.021
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    Cited by:

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    3. Mos, Catalin, 2025. "Political elections, doctrine shifts, voting margins, and earnings management: the mediating role of capital markets and financial analysts coverage," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 85(PC).
    4. Mobeen Ur Rehman & Wafa Ghardallou & Nasir Ahmad & Xuan Vinh Vo & Sang Hoon Kang, 2024. "Does effect of risk and uncertainties on US sectoral returns differ across different investment horizons and market conditions," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 26(1), pages 1-49, February.
    5. Samson Mukanjari & Thomas Sterner, 2024. "Do markets Trump politics? Fossil and renewable market reactions to major political events," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 62(2), pages 805-836, April.
    6. Killins, Robert N. & Ngo, Thanh & Wang, Hongxia, 2022. "Financial institution IPOs and regulatory environments," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PB).
    7. Beckmann, Lars & Debener, Jörn & Hark, Paul F. & Pfingsten, Andreas, 2024. "CBDC and the shadow of bank disintermediation: US stock market insights on threats and remedies," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 67(PB).
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • H77 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - Intergovernmental Relations; Federalism

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