IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/bstrat/v34y2025i6p7938-7956.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Stock Market's Anticipation of the Trump 2024 Election: The Case of Sustainable Business Models

Author

Listed:
  • Dennis Koch
  • Dirk Schiereck

Abstract

This study examines the impact of green revenues on US stock price reactions around Donald Trump's 2024 election win. Firms' green revenue share (GRS) is significantly associated with negative cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) post‐election, exhibiting a nonlinear effect that intensifies at higher GRS levels. However, stock markets showed no anticipating revaluation of green business models during the weeks before the election. Instead, investors reacted sharply to two unanticipated key pre‐election events, the Trump assassination attempt and Harris' candidacy announcement, highlighting sensitivity to anticipated shifts in green policy. Remarkably, the revaluation of green business models did not take place uniformly across the entire country. The state political environment moderates this effect, as green firms in Democratic states experienced more negative CARs than those in Republican states.

Suggested Citation

  • Dennis Koch & Dirk Schiereck, 2025. "The Stock Market's Anticipation of the Trump 2024 Election: The Case of Sustainable Business Models," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(6), pages 7938-7956, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:bstrat:v:34:y:2025:i:6:p:7938-7956
    DOI: 10.1002/bse.4371
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/bse.4371
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/bse.4371?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:bstrat:v:34:y:2025:i:6:p:7938-7956. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/10.1002/(ISSN)1099-0836 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.