IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finana/v21y2012icp23-32.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

An analysis of intraday market behaviour before takeover announcements

Author

Listed:
  • Rodrigues, Bruno Dore
  • Souza, Reinaldo Castro
  • Stevenson, Maxwell J.

Abstract

The objective of this study was to analyse the changes in the intraday market microstructure behaviour before a takeover announcement for a sample of target, bidder and control (non-target) companies. Under the hypothesis that agents with asymmetric information were operating in the market, the Autoregressive Conditional Duration (ACD) model was used to estimate the joint impact of duration and microstructure variables on the returns volatility in the months before the event. The analysis was conducted on tick-by-tick data over a period of six to four months, and then three months before an announcement date. Our results suggested that the effect of information on the returns volatility, as measured by several economic and intraday microstructure observable variables, was different between target, bidder and non-target companies leading up to the takeover announcement. These variables were durations between trades, the surprise in durations, spreads and trading volumes. It was concluded that the intraday trading behaviour for takeover targets was affected by traders who held private information (especially the bidders) at least three months before the official announcement of the offer. The selected stocks were traded on the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX) and were sourced between 2004 and 2008 from a wide range of industries and with different levels of liquidity.

Suggested Citation

  • Rodrigues, Bruno Dore & Souza, Reinaldo Castro & Stevenson, Maxwell J., 2012. "An analysis of intraday market behaviour before takeover announcements," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 23-32.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:21:y:2012:i:c:p:23-32
    DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2011.05.005
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1057521911000524
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.irfa.2011.05.005?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Foster, F Douglas & Viswanathan, S, 1990. "A Theory of the Interday Variations in Volume, Variance, and Trading Costs in Securities Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(4), pages 593-624.
    2. John H. Boyd & Ross Levine & Bruce Smith, 1996. "Inflation and financial market performance," Working Papers (Old Series) 9617, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    3. Dufour, Alfonso & Engle, Robert F, 1999. "Time and the Price Impact of a Trade," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt62c0h04j, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    4. Foster, F Douglas & Viswanathan, S, 1995. "Can Speculative Trading Explain the Volume-Volatility Relation?," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(4), pages 379-396, October.
    5. Drost, Feike C & Werker, Bas J M, 2004. "Semiparametric Duration Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22(1), pages 40-50, January.
    6. Robert F. Engle, 2000. "The Econometrics of Ultra-High Frequency Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(1), pages 1-22, January.
    7. Luc Bauwens & Pierre Giot, 2000. "The Logarithmic ACD Model: An Application to the Bid-Ask Quote Process of Three NYSE Stocks," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 60, pages 117-149.
    8. Alfonso Dufour & Robert F. Engle, 2000. "Time and the Price Impact of a Trade," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(6), pages 2467-2498, December.
    9. repec:adr:anecst:y:2000:i:60:p:05 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Marcus Noland & Sherman Robinson & Zhi Wang, 1997. "The Continuing Asian Financial Crisis," Japanese Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(5), pages 70-95.
    11. Meitz, Mika & Terasvirta, Timo, 2006. "Evaluating Models of Autoregressive Conditional Duration," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 24, pages 104-124, January.
    12. Joachim Grammig & Kai-Oliver Maurer, 2000. "Non-monotonic hazard functions and the autoregressive conditional duration model," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 3(1), pages 16-38.
    13. Robert Jennings, 1994. "Intraday Changes In Target Firms' Share Price And Bid-Ask Quotes Around Takeover Announcements," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 17(2), pages 255-270, June.
    14. Anat R. Admati, Paul Pfleiderer, 1988. "A Theory of Intraday Patterns: Volume and Price Variability," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 3-40.
    15. BAUWENS, Luc & VEREDAS, David, 1999. "The stochastic conditional duration model: a latent factor model for the analysis of financial durations," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 1999058, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    16. Robert F. Engle & Jeffrey R. Russell, 1998. "Autoregressive Conditional Duration: A New Model for Irregularly Spaced Transaction Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(5), pages 1127-1162, September.
    17. Easley, David & O'Hara, Maureen, 1987. "Price, trade size, and information in securities markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 69-90, September.
    18. Marshall, Ben R., 2006. "Liquidity and stock returns: Evidence from a pure order-driven market using a new liquidity proxy," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 21-38.
    19. Robert N. McCauley & William R. White, 1997. "The Euro and European financial markets," BIS Working Papers 41, Bank for International Settlements.
    20. Jabbour, Alain R. & Jalilvand, Abolhassan & Switzer, Jeannette A., 2000. "Pre-bid price run-ups and insider trading activity: Evidence from Canadian acquisitions," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 21-43, February.
    21. Wong, Woon K. & Tan, Dijun & Tian, Yixiang, 2009. "Informed trading and liquidity in the Shanghai Stock Exchange," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 18(1-2), pages 66-73, March.
    22. Jennings, Robert, 1994. "Intraday Changes in Target Firms' Share Price and Bid-Ask Quotes around Takeover Announcements," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 17(2), pages 255-270, Summer.
    23. Diamond, Douglas W. & Verrecchia, Robert E., 1987. "Constraints on short-selling and asset price adjustment to private information," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 277-311, June.
    24. Easley, David & O'Hara, Maureen, 1992. "Time and the Process of Security Price Adjustment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 576-605, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ly, Kim Cuong & Liu, Hong & Opong, Kwaku, 2017. "Who acquires whom among stand-alone commercial banks and bank holding company affiliates?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 144-158.
    2. Ripamonti, Alexandre & Silva, Diego & Moreira Neto, Eurico, 2018. "Asset Pricing and Asymmetric Information," MPRA Paper 87403, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:bla:jecsur:v:22:y:2008:i:4:p:711-751 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Manganelli, Simone, 2005. "Duration, volume and volatility impact of trades," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 377-399, November.
    3. Stanislav Anatolyev & Dmitry Shakin, 2007. "Trade intensity in the Russian stock market: dynamics, distribution and determinants," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(2), pages 87-104.
    4. N. Taylor & Y. Xu, 2017. "The logarithmic vector multiplicative error model: an application to high frequency NYSE stock data," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(7), pages 1021-1035, July.
    5. Yogo Purwono & Irwan Adi Ekaputra & Zaäfri Ananto Husodo, 2018. "Estimation of Dynamic Mixed Hitting Time Model Using Characteristic Function Based Moments," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 51(2), pages 295-321, February.
    6. Yang, Joey Wenling, 2011. "Transaction duration and asymmetric price impact of trades--Evidence from Australia," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 91-102, January.
    7. Xiufeng Yan, 2021. "Autoregressive conditional duration modelling of high frequency data," Papers 2111.02300, arXiv.org.
    8. Wong, Woon K. & Tan, Dijun & Tian, Yixiang, 2009. "Informed trading and liquidity in the Shanghai Stock Exchange," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 18(1-2), pages 66-73, March.
    9. Chen, Tao & Li, Jie & Cai, Jun, 2008. "Information content of inter-trade time on the Chinese market," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 174-193, September.
    10. Spierdijk, Laura, 2004. "An empirical analysis of the role of the trading intensity in information dissemination on the NYSE," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 163-184, March.
    11. Roman Huptas, 2014. "Bayesian Estimation and Prediction for ACD Models in the Analysis of Trade Durations from the Polish Stock Market," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 6(4), pages 237-273, December.
    12. Magdalena Osinska & Andrzej Dobrzynski & Yochanan Shachmurove, 2016. "Performance Of American And Russian Joint Stock Companies On Financial Market. A Microstructure Perspective," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 11(4), pages 819-851, December.
    13. Dimitrakopoulos, Stefanos & Tsionas, Mike G. & Aknouche, Abdelhakim, 2020. "Ordinal-response models for irregularly spaced transactions: A forecasting exercise," MPRA Paper 103250, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Oct 2020.
    14. Renault, Eric & van der Heijden, Thijs & Werker, Bas J.M., 2014. "The dynamic mixed hitting-time model for multiple transaction prices and times," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 180(2), pages 233-250.
    15. Fernandes, Marcelo & Grammig, Joachim, 2005. "Nonparametric specification tests for conditional duration models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 127(1), pages 35-68, July.
    16. Gurgul Henryk & Machno Artur, 2017. "Trade Pattern on Warsaw Stock Exchange and Prediction of Number of Trades," Statistics in Transition New Series, Statistics Poland, vol. 18(1), pages 91-114, March.
    17. Grammig, Joachim & Wellner, Marc, 2002. "Modeling the interdependence of volatility and inter-transaction duration processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 106(2), pages 369-400, February.
    18. Jiang, Zhi-Qiang & Chen, Wei & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2008. "Scaling in the distribution of intertrade durations of Chinese stocks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(23), pages 5818-5825.
    19. Dungey, Mardi & Henry, Olan & McKenzie, Michael, 2010. "From Trade-to-Trade in US Treasuries," Working Papers 10446, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics, revised 01 May 2010.
    20. Liu, Chun & Maheu, John M., 2012. "Intraday dynamics of volatility and duration: Evidence from Chinese stocks," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 329-348.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Market microstructure; Takeovers; Targets; Bidders; ACD model; Volatility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G34 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Mergers; Acquisitions; Restructuring; Corporate Governance
    • D5 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium
    • N27 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - Africa; Oceania

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:21:y:2012:i:c:p:23-32. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620166 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.