Evaluation of tourist importance-performance for supporting adaptive marine conservation programs through marine natural capital

This study utilizes Importance-Performance Analysis (IPA) and regression modeling to critically evaluate tourist perceptions and their engagement in marine conservation programs in Bali, Indonesia, emphasizing the intricate relationships between human activities and environmental outcomes. Focusing on four adaptive capacity components including asset, knowledge, flexibility, and engagement, this research assesses the disparity between tourists’ expectations and the actual performance of natural capital initiatives, while providing a socio-economic analysis of these gaps. The target demographic of tourists typically exhibits higher income levels (greater than IDR 5,000,000), low travel frequencies (1 trip per year), moderate support for local natural capital initiatives (rated 2 on a scale), and a higher education level (bachelor’s degree and above). These attributes significantly shape their perceptions and interactions with the marine environment. The findings reveal substantial discrepancies, particularly in educational and engagement activities, which these well-educated and economically capable tourists value highly but report as underperforming. Moreover, the study elucidates how overall perceptions of importance and performance significantly influence tourists’ willingness to financially support conservation efforts. This analysis underlines the necessity for tourism operators to enhance the quality, interactivity, and visibility of conservation activities to effectively increase support. Strategic recommendations are proposed to refine these conservation practices, better aligning them with both tourist expectations and sustainable environmental goals. These recommendations aim to optimize the effectiveness and sustainability of marine conservation efforts, thereby ensuring they achieve significant environmental benefits while simultaneously enhancing tourist satisfaction and supporting sustainable tourism development.